globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000483551700023
论文题名:
Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
作者: Morim, Joao1,2,3; Hemer, Mark2; Wang, Xiaolan L.4; Cartwright, Nick1; Trenham, Claire2; Semedos, Alvaro5,6; Young, Ian7; Bricheno, Lucy8; Camus, Paula9; Casas-Prat, Merce4; Erikson, Li3; Mentaschi, Lorenzo10; Mori, Nobuhito11; Shimura, Tomoya11; Timmermans, Ben12; Aarnes, Ole13; Breivik, Oyvind13,14; Behrens, Arno15; Dobrynin, Mikhail16; Menendez, Melisa9; Staneva, Joanna15; Wehner, Michael17; Wolf, Judith8; Kamranzad, Bahareh18; Webb, Adrean11; Stopa, Justin19; Andutta, Fernando1
通讯作者: Morim, Joao
刊名: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:9, 页码:711-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL RISE ; 21ST-CENTURY ; PACIFIC ; IMPACT ; PERFORMANCE ; REANALYSIS ; VULNERABILITY ; CALIBRATION ; CONSISTENT ; CYCLONES
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5-15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5-15 degrees, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world's coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with similar to 40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to similar to 50% of the total associated uncertainty.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146628
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Griffith Univ, Sch Built Environm & Engn, Southport, Qld, Australia
2.Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org Oceans & Atmospher, Hobart, Tas, Australia
3.US Geol Survey, Pacific Coastal & Marine Sci Ctr, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA
4.Climate Res Div, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
5.IHE Delft, Dept Water Sci & Engn, Delft, Netherlands
6.Univ Lisbon, Inst Dom Luiz, Fac Sci, Lisbon, Portugal
7.Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Parkville, Vic, Australia
8.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Liverpool, Merseyside, England
9.Univ Cantabria, Environm Hydraul Inst IHCantabria, Santander, Spain
10.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy
11.Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto, Japan
12.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA USA
13.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Bergen, Norway
14.Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway
15.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Ctr Mat & Coastal Re, Geesthacht, Germany
16.Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Inst Oceanog, Hamburg, Germany
17.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Computat Res Div, Berkeley, CA USA
18.Kyoto Univ, Hakubi Ctr Adv Res, Grad Sch Adv Integrated Studies Human Survivabil, Kyoto, Japan
19.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Ocean & Resources Engn, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

Recommended Citation:
Morim, Joao,Hemer, Mark,Wang, Xiaolan L.,et al. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(9):711-+
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Morim, Joao]'s Articles
[Hemer, Mark]'s Articles
[Wang, Xiaolan L.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Morim, Joao]'s Articles
[Hemer, Mark]'s Articles
[Wang, Xiaolan L.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Morim, Joao]‘s Articles
[Hemer, Mark]‘s Articles
[Wang, Xiaolan L.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.