globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.05.027
WOS记录号: WOS:000480376400021
论文题名:
The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century
作者: Li, Jiangyue1; Chang, Hong2; Liu, Tong3; Zhang, Chi1,4
通讯作者: Zhang, Chi
刊名: AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN: 0168-1923
EISSN: 1873-2240
出版年: 2019
卷: 275, 页码:243-254
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Potential geographic distribution ; MaxEnt model ; Haloxylon ; Climate change
WOS关键词: ECOLOGICAL WATER CONVEYANCE ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTING IMPACTS ; CARBON STOCK ; TARIM RIVER ; MAXENT ; PRECIPITATION ; VEGETATION ; UNCERTAINTIES ; ECOSYSTEMS
WOS学科分类: Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Members of Haloxylon are unique key species in the deserts of Central Asia (including Soviet Central Asia (SCA) and Xinjiang, China (XJ)). The region is a hotspot of global warming, and the plants' habitats are threatened by climate change. By using normal-climate data and future climate projections from 17 general circulation models (GCMs), we herein simulate the present and future potential habitats of Haloxylon persicum (H. persicum) and Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) in Central Asia using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model that was developed based on 307 specimen records of Haloxylon vegetation. The MaxEnt model showed high accuracy, with an average training area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.93-0.95. Our analysis indicated that temperature and precipitation play equally important roles in shaping the spatial distribution of these desert shrubs. According to the model estimates, the current (based on 1961-1990 climate normals) potential habitats of H. persicum and H. ammodendron are 1.56 x 10(6) km(2) and 1.53 x 10(6) km(2), respectively, mostly (93.1% and 75%, respectively) distributed in SCA. Model projections based on two future climate scenarios, namely, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (representing stabilized radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) and 8.5 W m(-2) by the end of the 21st century, respectively), predicted that the potential habitat of H. persicum will increase by 44% (RCP4.5) to 62% (RCP8.5) but that the potential habitat of H. ammodendron will decrease by 22% (RCP4.5) to 34% (RCP8.5) in the late-21st century. The potential habitats of Haloxylon vegetation will gradually be lost in XJ but will expand in southwestern Kazakhstan circa 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Therefore, it is advisable to protect the habitats of Haloxylon species in XJ (esp. southern XJ), where strong warming in the future might impose severe stress, and establish ecological corridors in central Uzbekistan and southern Kazakhstan to facilitate Haloxylon redistribution, as the geographical centroid of the Haloxylon habitats is shifting northward and westward in Central Asia.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147021
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Linyi Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Shandong Prov Key Lab Water & Soil Conservat & En, Linyi 276000, Shandong, Peoples R China
2.Sichuan Univ, Coll Life Sci, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan, Peoples R China
3.Shihezi Univ, Coll Life Sci, Shihezi 832000, Peoples R China
4.Cent Asia Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecol & Environm, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Li, Jiangyue,Chang, Hong,Liu, Tong,et al. The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,275:243-254
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