Two models (HadCM3 and EACHE5), which have good ability for temperature simulation in China, are used to calculate the distribution of frozen ground in China, based on testing of the model performance of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The trend of frozen ground change in spatial distribution under Scenario A2 in 2006-2050 was calculated by the Kudryavtsev method with ArcGIS and using the datasets of digital soil and vegetation. In the next 50 years, the frozen ground in China will shrink. In 2050, permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau between the Bayan Har Mountains and Tanggula Range and in the Transhimalaya will degenerate. As compared with that in 2006, the frozen ground area in China will decrease about 10.7%.