globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5293747
论文题名:
1961 2010年藏北牧草生长季极端气温的变化特征
其他题名: Variation characteristics of extreme temperature events at grass growing season in Northern Tibet from 1961 to 2010
作者: 杜军1; 周刊社2; 袁雷2; 建军3
刊名: 草业科学
ISSN: 1001-0629
出版年: 2014
卷: 31, 期:11
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 极端气温指数 ; 时空变化 ; 藏北牧区
英文关键词: extreme temperature indices ; temporal and spatial variation ; Northern Tibet
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 基于西藏那曲地区6个地面气象站(台)19612010年逐日最高、最低气温数据,采用极端最高气温、暖(冷)昼(夜)天数和生长季长度等10个指标,运用线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了藏北牧草生长季极端气温的时空变化。结果表明,19612010年藏北牧草生长季的TXx(极端最高气温)、TXn(最高气温极小值)、TNn(极端最低气温)和TNx(最低气温极大值)都表现为升高趋势,其中TNn升幅最大,为0.40℃?10a~(-1)。DTR(气温日较差)以-0.17℃·10a~(-1)的速度显著变小(P<0.01),GSL(生长季长度)以1.8d·10a~(-1)的速度明显延长。牧草生长季的TX90p(暖昼天数)和TN90p(暖夜天数)显著增加,平均每10a分别增加4.11和11.81d,尤其是近30年TN90p升幅更明显,达23.03d·10a~(-1);而TX10p(冷昼天数)和TN10p(冷昼天数)呈显著减少趋势,分别为-3.33和-6.69d·10a(-1)。在10a年际变化尺度上,极端气温暖指数(TNx、TX90p、TN90p和GSL)呈现增加趋势,极端气温冷指数(TX10p、TN10p)和DTR表现为下降趋势。在时间转折上,TXx突变时间较早,发生在1984年;其他指数的突变点出现在20世纪90年代以后。极端气温指数的变化趋势有利于藏北牧草的生长。
英文摘要: Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 6 meteorological stations in Northern Tibet from 1961 to 2010,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme temperature events at grass growing season were analyzed using the ten indices of extreme temperature. The methods of a 10-year smoothing average, linear regression, correlation analysis,and a Mann-Kendall model test were employed to reveal the rate of change,statistical significance of the trends, and mutation points of extreme temperature indices. The analysis showed that maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum value of daily maximum temperature (TXn),minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum value of daily minimum temperature (TNx) significantly increased at grass growing season during recent 50 years with the maximum TNn increasing rate at 0.40 ℃? 10 a~(-1) Diurnal temperature range (DTR) significantly decreased at a rate of -0.17 ℃ ? 10 a~(-1) whereas the length of growing season (GSL) significantly increased with a rate of 1.81 d ? 10 a~(-1). The numbers of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) significantly increased with a rate of 4.11 and 11.81 d ? 10 a~(-1), respectively(P <0.01). Furthermore,the number of TN90p significantly increased with a rate of 23.03 d ? 10 a~(-1) during 1981 2010. The numbers of cool days (TX1Op) and cold nights (TN1Op) significantly decreased with a rate of 3.33 and 6.69 d ? 10 a~(-1),respectively(P<0.01). In terms of decadal variations, the warm indices (TNx, TX90p,TN90p and GSL) increased while the cold indices (TX1Op and TN1Op) and DTR decreased. It was also found that the mutation of the TXx was in 1984,the other extreme temperature indices (TNn, TNx, TX1Op, TN90p, TN1Op, DTR and GSL) occurred after the 1900s, but no mutation occurred for TXn and TX90p. Extreme temperature indices suggested that the climate change was beneficial for grass growing in Northern Tibet.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147449
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作者单位: 1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 成都, 四川 610071, 中国
2.西藏自治区气候中心, 拉萨, 西藏 850001, 中国
3.西藏自治区山南地区气象局, 泽当, 西藏 856000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杜军,周刊社,袁雷,等. 1961 2010年藏北牧草生长季极端气温的变化特征[J]. 草业科学,2014-01-01,31(11)
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