globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5229030
论文题名:
紫茎泽兰潜在分布对气候变化响应的研究
其他题名: Research on responses of Eupatoriumadenophorum's potential distribution to climate change
作者: 王翀1; 林慧龙1; 何兰2; 曹坳程3
刊名: 草业学报
ISSN: 1004-5759
出版年: 2014
卷: 23, 期:4
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 物种入侵 ; 紫茎泽兰 ; 生态位模型 ; 生态位因子分析(ENFA) ; 最大熵模型(MaxEnt)
英文关键词: invasive species ; Eupatorium adenophorum ; niche model ; ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) ; maximum entropy model (MaxEnt)
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 紫茎泽兰的生态适应性强,是我国外来入侵物种中危害最为严重的恶性杂草。研究紫茎泽兰的适生性特征及对全球气候变化的响应规律是制定防控策略的重要基础,为此,本研究采用了将生态位因子分析(ENFA)与最大熵模型(MaxEnt)嵌套的方法,首先通过ENFA对环境因子进行降维,利用降维后的环境因子以及当前及A1 b情景的未来气候数据,根据最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测紫茎泽兰的潜在分布,并使用 ROC 曲线分析对预测结果进行评价。结果显示,当前气候情景下,紫茎泽兰的分布区以云南、贵州、广西等省为主;未来A1 b情景下,易入侵等级(入侵概率为0.6~1.0)的区域面积将会由当前的12.82 km~2增加至2080s的21.30 km~2,中心点将由当前位置向西南方向移动61 km;而其中高入侵概率等级(入侵概率为0.8~1.0)的区域面积将由当前的0.42 km~2增加至2080s的0.91 km~2,中心点将由当前位置向东南方向移动178.66 km。根据当前及未来A1b 气候情景下紫茎泽兰潜在分布情况,并根据不同入侵等级区域采取相应的防除治理措施,将对紫茎泽兰的综合治理具有重要指导意义。
英文摘要: Eupatoriumadenophorum is one of the most invasive alien species in China.It has a strong ecological adaptability,and it can seize the niche very quickly thus the native species would be posed a threat to biodiversity by being crowded out.In order to study the potential distribution of E. adenophorum and its response to climate change,also to find out the environmental factors which influence the distribution of E. adenophorum, the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA)and the maximum entropy model were combined in this study. Firstly the environmental factors dimension was reduced by ENFA;secondly together with current and future climate data the study use MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of E. adenophorum in the future.The results showed that in the A1b scenario,the main distribution areas were Yunnan,Guizhou,and Guangxi province.From now to 2080s,the area of L_(45) grade (the invasion probability is 0.6-1.0)was increased from 12.82 km~2 of nowadays to 21.30 km~2 in 2080s,and the center moved 46.62 km northwest.While the area of L_5 grade (the invasion probability is 0.8-1.0)was increased from 0.42 km~2 of nowadays to 0.91 km2 in 2080s,and the center moved 178.66 km northeast.According to the research of the potential distribution of E. adenophorum in the current and future,the area of different invasion grade could be controlled by appropriate measures,and it will provide an important guidance for the comprehensive management.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147459
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.兰州大学草地农业科技学院, 草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730020, 中国
2.中国食品药品检定研究院, 北京 100050, 中国
3.中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 北京 100193, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王翀,林慧龙,何兰,等. 紫茎泽兰潜在分布对气候变化响应的研究[J]. 草业学报,2014-01-01,23(4)
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