globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5100781
论文题名:
近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子
其他题名: Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years
作者: 姚俊强1; 刘志辉1; 杨青2; 刘洋1; 李诚志3; 胡文峰4
刊名: 地理学报
ISSN: 0375-5444
出版年: 2014
卷: 69, 期:3
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气温 ; 多时间尺度 ; 小波分析 ; 亚洲极涡 ; CO_2排放量 ; 中亚干旱区
英文关键词: temperature variability ; multi-time scale ; wavelet analysis ; Central Asian vortexes activity ; CO_2 emissions ; Central Asia
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 利用中亚干旱区5大主要典型流域代表性气象站点近130年逐月实测气温数据,结合线性趋势、Mann-Kenndall非参数检验和小波分析等方法,研究了各流域气温的多时间尺度特征,并探讨了引起气温变化的可能因素。研究发现,在近130年来中亚干旱区各主要流域(除阿姆河外)年均气温均呈上升趋势,增温趋势高于全球和周边地区,中亚干旱区气温对全球变化的响应比其他地区更加明显。20世纪80年代之后更加明显,并表现出明显的多时间尺度周期振荡特征,这主要是自然外强迫动力作用、气候系统内部变化和人类活动相互叠加的结果,亚洲极涡强度减弱和面积缩小对主要流域气温变化的作用明显,其次是北半球环状模(北极涛动)和青藏高原的影响,而CO_2引起的温室气体增温效应在中亚干旱区也不容忽视。气温表现出与布吕克纳周期(BC)、太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和准2~3年振荡周期(TBO)等有关的显著周期,可以证实中亚干旱区气温变化与大气环流、海温和太阳活动等密切相关。
英文摘要: Basin-scale is of the special significance to the climate change research in arid areas. In this study, data from five typical basins of the arid Central Asia are analyzed to investigate changes in annual temperature during the period of 1881-2011. The nonparametric Mann- Kendall test, wavelet analysis and the correlation analysis are used to identify trend, multiple time scale feature and their possible causes in the annual temperature. The results show that the average annual temperature had an increasing trend in the main basins (except Amu Darya Basin) of the arid Central Asia in the past 130 years. The rising rate is consistent with that of the northern hemisphere, much higher than that of the global average and surrounding region, suggesting that the arid Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change than other regions. Abrupt change point in annual temperature occurred around the year of 1986, and showed significant multi-time scale periodic oscillation, which is mainly due to the physical external force and internal climate-control system. The Central Asian vortexes' activity has a significant effect on annual temperature of the typical basins, followed by the northern annual mode cycle variation and the Tibetan Plateau, while the greenhouse effect caused by CO_2 gas emissions in the arid Central Asia can not be ignored. Temperatures show an aperiodic cycle which is related to the BC, PDO and TBO, and we can confirm that temperature in the arid Central Asia is closely related to the atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature and solar activity.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147537
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国
2.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国
3.新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国
4.兰州大学资源环境学院,干旱区水循环与水资源研究中心, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
姚俊强,刘志辉,杨青,等. 近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子[J]. 地理学报,2014-01-01,69(3)
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