globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5189623
论文题名:
山东省典型褐土有机碳演变模拟中的不确定性来源研究
其他题名: STUDY ON UNCERTAINTY SOURCES OF CENTURY MODEL FOR SIMULATING SOIL ORGANIC CARBON DYNAMICS OF TYPICAL CINNAMON SOIL IN SHANDONG PROVINCE
作者: 刘晓宇; 赵永存; 秦发侣; 史学正
刊名: 第四纪研究
ISSN: 1001-7410
出版年: 2014
卷: 34, 期:4
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 土壤有机碳 ; 典型褐土 ; CENTURY模型 ; 全局敏感性分析 ; 农业管理措施
英文关键词: soil organic carbon ; typical cinnamon soil ; CENTURY model ; global sensitivity analysis ; agricultural management
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 准确把握土壤有机碳(SOC)时空演变规律对全球气候变化政策的制定具有重要意义。模型是预测区域 SOC动态的常用手段,然而,由于模型模拟单元内输入参数需通过现有的少量数据上推获取,必然导致其存在不确定性,这往往增加模拟结果的不确定性。本研究以山东省济南市历城区的长期监测点验证CENTURY模型的适用性;并以山东省典型褐土为例,在区域尺度上通过全局敏感性分析,定量化山东省SOC模拟结果对模型输入参数的敏感性。结果表明,山东省典型褐土中SOC呈增长趋势,SOC密度从1987年的1.9kgC/m~2增长到2007年的2.9kg C/m~2;模拟SOC对于各输入参数的敏感性不同,且随着时间而变化;秸秆收获比例和有机肥施用量的总敏感性指数最高(分别为0.37和0.20),是主要的不确定性来源;农田管理调查应强调秸秆还田和有机肥施用量,以减小模拟结果的不确定性。
英文摘要: Soil carbon is an important component of global carbon cycle. And soil organic carbon ( SOC ) storage is so huge that slight change of it can contribute to significant change of global CO_2 concentration. Accurate evaluation of SOC dynamics temporally and spatially is of great significance to the decision making for the global climate change. Process-based models are recommended means to estimate SOC dynamics regionally. However, input parameters in each modeling unit which were upscaling from data with low temporal and spatial resolution will always introduce uncertainty to the model outputs. Thus, identifying the input parameters to which the modeled SOC is sensitive can guide the future survey design to reduce the uncertainty of it. Recently, many researches about sensitivity analysis have been done. However, little research has been done about sensitivity of CENTURY model's output SOC to model input parameters in China, especially those parameters about agriculture management which are differed over the whole country. In our study, CENTURY model was validated in a long-term monitoring site located in Licheng County, Shandong Province of China. The performance of CENTURY model proved that it worked well in typical cinnamon soil in Shandong province represented by this long-term monitoring site. Global sensitivity analysis was used to quantify the sensitivity of modeled SOC to model input parameters in Shandong Province of China. The simulation of typical cinnamon soil in Shandong province indicated that SOC density under this circumstance increased from 1. 9kg C/m~2 in year 1987 to 2. 9kg C/m~2 in 2007. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that during the simulation period, the sensitivity of the modeled SOC varied over time and differed according to the input parameters. Six out of twelve input parameters are of influence to the model output SOC,which are percentage of harvest straw, manure addition, temperature addends, soil clay content, precipitation multiplier and potential aboveground monthly production coefficient for maize in order of the total effect. Percentage of harvest straw and manure addition are major uncertainty sources of modeled SOC with the highest total effect (the total effect of them are 0. 37 and 0. 20,respectively). Therefore, in order to reduce uncertainty in the modeled SOC, the amount of straw residue and manure addition should be emphasized in the agricultural management survey. Reasonable measures to reduce uncertainty in CENTURY's output SOC can be conclude according to the findings of this study. And this study also useful for the uncertainty assessment of modeled agricultural SOC's temporal and spatial dynamics at national scale.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147677
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 中国科学院南京土壤研究所, 土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210008, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘晓宇,赵永存,秦发侣,等. 山东省典型褐土有机碳演变模拟中的不确定性来源研究[J]. 第四纪研究,2014-01-01,34(4)
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