globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5280153
论文题名:
历史气候变化影响研究中的社会经济等级序列重建方法探讨
其他题名: METHODOLOGY FOR QUANTIFYING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SERIES ON THE BASE OF SEMANTIC DIFFERENTIAL TO SERVE THE RESEARCH ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
作者: 方修琦1; 苏筠2; 尹君2; 魏柱灯2; 郑景云3; 罗玉洪2
刊名: 第四纪研究
ISSN: 1001-7410
出版年: 2014
卷: 34, 期:6
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 历史社会经济序列 ; 过去2000年 ; 中国 ; 重建方法
英文关键词: historical social-economic series ; the past 2000 years ; China ; reconstruction methodology
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 重建历史时期的社会经济序列是研究气候变化对社会经济影响的难点问题。基于中国历史文献记载丰富、覆盖时段长、记录时间分辨率高、含有大量的社会经济信息描述的特点,本文阐述了采用语义差异法定量重建历史时期社会经济序列的方法,特别是其中的文字描述等级化和时间尺度归一化技术。语义差异法源于心理学,通常采用双极(相对、反义)形容词来刻画研究对象的属性,以表示不同程度的言语进行量化区分,根据描述词汇的语义差异构建分级量表。采用语义差异法对历史社会经济变化进行量化的关键是确定重建指标分级量化的标准,需要在兼顾不同词汇的语义是否易于区分的同时,特别注意各等级及其所对应的标准词汇的物理意义。时间尺度归一化主要解决根据原始记录重建的原始等级序列可能存在的时间分辨率不均等或时间不连续问题,以10年分辨率作为时间尺度均一化的基本时间单元,对年分辨率的记录,可采取先逐年等级化重建再加权平均到10年等级值的方法进行升尺度处理;对年代际以上尺度的数据则可先直接对记录进行等级化,再通过多时间分辨率10年数据的融合方法进行降尺度处理,得到10年分辨率的等级值。
英文摘要: To reconstruct historical social-economic series is one of the main difficulties in the research of socio-economic impacts of historical climate change. Based on the characteristics that a lot of social and economic information was scattered in the rich, long-term, and continuous historical literatures of China, a methodology for quantifying social and economic series on the base of semantic differential is proposed in this study. Semantic differential method originated from psychology. It usually adopts bipolar (opposite) adjectives to describe the properties of the objects, and quantitatively distinguishes the different levels according to the differential of semantics expressed by the additional words. The two key technologies of quantifying social and economic series based on semantic differential are gradation of literal description and uniformity of time resolution. The core of the semantic differential method is to establish the standards of gradation,which needs to consider both the differentiation degrees of the standard vocabulary and the physical meaning of the grades. The uniformity of time resolution focuses on the problems of the unequal time resolutions or discontinuity of the original grade series. Aimed at the 10 years as the basic time unit, up scaling method is used to convert the annual data, and down scaling method is used to convert the multi-decadal data.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147687
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
2.北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875, 中国
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
方修琦,苏筠,尹君,等. 历史气候变化影响研究中的社会经济等级序列重建方法探讨[J]. 第四纪研究,2014-01-01,34(6)
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