globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5167264
论文题名:
渭河流域降雨时间序列非一致性频率分析
其他题名: Nonstationary frequency analysis of rainfall time series in Weihe River Basin
作者: 杜涛; 熊立华; 江聪
刊名: 干旱区地理
ISSN: 1000-6060
出版年: 2014
卷: 37, 期:3
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水文频率分析 ; 非一致性 ; 时变矩法 ; 分解合成法
英文关键词: GCM ; hydrological frequency analysis ; nonstationarity ; GCM ; the time-varying moment method ; the decomposition and combination method
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 随着全球气候变化加剧及大规模人类活动影响,水文时间序列一致性假设不再成立,导致基于一致性假设的传统水文频率分析方法得到的设计结果可信度受到质疑。为了研究渭河流域降雨时间序列的非一致性对未来年份内某一重现期设计暴雨的影响,采用时变矩法及时间序列分解合成法对修正后的GCM降雨时间序列进行非一致性频率分析,并预测2050年、2075年、2100年相应的100 a、500 a重现期的年最大24 h设计暴雨。研究发现:(1)修正后的年最大24 h降雨时间序列均值及方差都存在显著的非一致性;(2)时变矩法设计结果较传统频率分析方法有较大差异,比如2100年100 a、500 a重现期的设计暴雨相比于传统方法分别增加29.09%、39.99%;(3)同时考虑均值及方差变异的时间序列分解合成法设计结果与时变矩法相当,但500 a重现期设计暴雨值相比于传统方法增加的程度稍小于时变矩法,其21Q0年100 a、500 a重现期的设计暴雨值较传统方法分别增加26.91 %、19.69%。
英文摘要: Because of global climate change and anthropogenic activities, the assumption that the hydrological time series is stationary will he no longer valid. Thus,the design values calculated with the traditional hydrological frequency analysis method based on the stationarity assumption might be unreliable and thus the nonstationary frequency analysis methods are required. This paper is aimed to study the impacts of the nonstationarity of the annual maximum (AM) 24 h precipitation series of the Weihe River (Weihe) Basin of Shaanxi Province, China on the design values for the given return periods. Both the GCM daily precipitation data series for the time period of 19012100, which is obtained by combining the outputs of the 20c3m and sresalb emission scenarios of model csiro_mk3-5, which are available on the website (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/), and the ohserved daily precipitation data of 20 rainfall gauges within the Weihe River (Weihe) Basin for the time period of 1951-2011 are collected. With these data, two AM series of 24 h precipitation over the whole Weihe River Basin are prepared, one is the 1901-2100 GCM series and the other is the observed 1951-2011 series. Because of the coarse spatial resolution of the GCM output,there exists great uncertainty with the 1901-2100 GCM series which must be rescaled firstly. Based on the theory of statistical downscaiing method and the observed AM 24 h precipitation series of 1951 2011, the AM 24 h GCM precipitation series of the 1901 -2100 is rescaled by the mean-correction factor and standard deviationcorrection factor to reduce the errors in the GCM outputs. With the rescaled AM 24 h GCM precipitation series, two nonstationary frequency analysis methods, i.e. the method of time-varying moment and the decomposition and combination method, are employed to estimate both the 100 a and 500 a design values of the AM 24 h precipitation for the design years of 2050, 2075,and 2100,respectively. The results of the two nonstationary frequency analysis methods have significant discrepancy comparing with those of the traditional method which is based on the stationary hypothesis. Three conclusions are made as follows. First, there are nonstationarities in both the mean and variance of the rescaled AM 24 h GCM precipitation series. Second,the results of the time-varying moment method are obviously different from those of the traditional frequency analysis method. For the year of 2100, the AM 24 h precipitation design values obtained by the former method for the return periods of 100 years and 500 years are 29.09% and 39.99% greater than the design values from the latter method,respectively. Third,for the method of decomposition and combination considering both the nonslationary mean and variance, its design value has the similar trend with those of the time-varying moment method for the same return period,hut has a relative lower increasing rate than the latter method for the return periods of 500 years. For the year of 2100,t he AM 24 h precipitation design values obtained hy the former method for the return periods of 100 years and 500 years are 26.91% and 19.69% greater than the design values from the traditional method,respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147731
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 武汉大学, 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉, 湖北 430072, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杜涛,熊立华,江聪. 渭河流域降雨时间序列非一致性频率分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2014-01-01,37(3)
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