基于家庭尺度气候变化适应性业已形成的感知 - 适应的研究框架,利用问卷调查方法,研究天山北坡山地草原牧民对气候变化趋势性、极端气候的感知特征以及与气候实值多角度的比较,分析牧民的响应策略。研究表明: ① 天山北坡19802009年气候变化显著,呈暖湿化特征,多数牧民认为降水减少,与事实相左,却对气温趋势判断准确,群体感知的一致程度为: 降水 > 气温 > 风速; ② 秋季、全年降水对牧民旱灾年份感知的解释能力最强,1月雪量对雪灾感知的解释能力最强,且牧民对旱灾、雪灾的发生仅在较近年份识别敏感; ③ 极端气候事件发生年份的感知强度与灾害下牲畜损失具有极显著的相关关系,灾害受损是导致牧民对极端气候产生感知的重要因素; ④ 牧民响应极端气候事件主要以购买草料、处理牲畜为主,一般来讲,保畜策略比减畜策略更为常见。研究认为,牧民气候感知是响应策略形成的重要信息基础,具有传导性; 气候响应过程的实质是在气候因子干扰下,家庭牧场复合系统的经营因子采取各种适应性策略,调节饲草资源与牲畜生产之间物质、能量的平衡关系。
英文摘要:
Based on the perception-adaptationframework formed in the research on adaptation to climate change at the household pasture scale,the herdsmenperception and adaptation to climate change and extreme weather events in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains were researched using questionnaires method. The results were as follows: ① Climate change trended significantly to warming-wetting pattern during the period from 1980 to 2009,but most herdsmen thought that precipitation was decreased,which contradicted to the meteorological data. Comparatively,they had an accurate judgment about temperature; ② Annual and autumn precipitation had the most powerful explanation for herdsmens perception,snowfall in January had that to drought years and snow disasters,and herdsmens perception to extreme climate events was more sensitive in recent years; ③ There was a significant correlation between herdsmens perception intensity to the years with extreme climate events and the livestock loss. Therefore,livestock loss in disasters was an important factor affecting herdsmens perception; ④ Forage purchase and livestock selling were the main measures of herdsmen to adapt climate change. In general,the measure of protecting livestock was taken more commonly than that of decreasing livestock. It was considered that herdsmens perception to climate change was an important information basis for adapting measures. The essence of herdsmens adaption to climate change was to take the some measures and balance the pasture resources and livestock production in compound familial pasture system.