globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5065623
论文题名:
漳泽水库径流时间序列变化特征与突变分析
其他题名: Abrupt change and characteristics of runoff time series for Zhangze reservoir
作者: 张敬平1; 黄强1; 赵雪花2
刊名: 干旱区资源与环境
ISSN: 1003-7578
出版年: 2014
卷: 28, 期:1, 页码:100-106
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流 ; Mann-Kendall法 ; Lepage法 ; 突变 ; 漳泽水库
英文关键词: runoff ; Mann- Kendall test ; Lepage test ; abrupt change ; Zhangze reservoir
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 径流形成受自然和人类活动的影响,其演变过程既呈现一定的趋势性,也存在一定的突变性。文中首先对漳泽水库站天然年径流序列进行年内和年际变化分析,发现年径流序列可能存在突变点,然后采用Mann-Kendall法和Lepage法分别对年径流序列进行突变趋势检验分析。结果表明:漳泽水库站天然年径流序列在1977年发生突变,变点前径流序列有明显上升趋势,变点后存在明显下降趋势,该突变现象发生可能主要是由人类活动引起。这一结论为漳泽水库水资源优化调度提供了科学依据。
英文摘要: Runoff formation is affected by climatic change and human being activity,its process exhibits both trend change and abrupt change. First inter- annual and annual distribution laws of the runoff were analyzed at the Zhangze reservoir station in this paper,and it was discovered that runoff might lie in abrupt point. Then Mann- Kendall test and Lepage test were used to detect abrupt point of annual runoff time series. The results showed that the change point of annual runoff for Zhangze reservoir station occurred in 1977,runoff in the former period showed increasing trends and in the latter period showed decreasing trend both at 0. 05 significance levels. This abrupt change of annual runoff was probably impacted by human being activity. The conclusions provide scientific ground for planning and management water resource in this reservoir.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147777
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.西安理工大学, 西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国
2.太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院, 太原, 山西 030024, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张敬平,黄强,赵雪花. 漳泽水库径流时间序列变化特征与突变分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2014-01-01,28(1):100-106
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