globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5271106
论文题名:
黄河源区玛多县1953 ~2012年气温和降水特征及突变分析
其他题名: Variations of air temperature and precipitation from 1953 to 2012 in the Madoi station in the sources areas of the Yellow River
作者: 罗栋梁; 金会军
刊名: 干旱区资源与环境
ISSN: 1003-7578
出版年: 2014
卷: 28, 期:11, 页码:1010-1016
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 黄河源区 ; 气候变化 ; 小波分析 ; 趋势检验
英文关键词: the sources areas of the Yellow River ; climate changes ; wavelet analysis ; trend test
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于黄河源区玛多县1953 ~ 2012年的日平均气温和降水资料,利用一元线性趋势分析、累积距平、Mann-Kendall 趋势检验及Morlet 复小波分析法,对黄河源区气温和降水特征与突变规律进行了分析。结果表明: 60年来黄河源区玛多县暖湿化特征明显。年均气温倾向率为0. 28℃·10a ~(-1),各季气温倾向率分别为: 春(0. 148 ℃·10a ~(-1)),夏(0. 212 ℃·10a ~(-1)),秋(0. 279℃·10a ~(-1)),冬(0. 501 ℃·10a ~(-1)),均通过了alpha = 0. 01的显著性检验。年降水量倾向率为10. 2mm·10a ~(-1),以春(3. 883mm·10a ~(-1))、夏(4. 506mm·10a ~(-1))降水量增加最大,年、春季降水量变化通过了alpha = 0. 05的显著性检验。1989年开始黄河源区气候转暖,1998年发生气候变暖的突变,2001年开始气温显著升高。年降水量从1988年增多,2004年发生降水量增多突变,2010年开始降水量显著增多。小波分析表明,年均气温存在25a、14a、11a 的年代际变化和6a 的年际变化,以12a 为其变化第一主周期; 年降水量存在45a、30a、12a 的年代际变化和5a 的年际变化,以30a 为其变化第一主周期。
英文摘要: Based on daily average air temperature and daily precipitation data from 1953 to 2012 in the Madoi station,and preliminary dispose with Pivot table in Microsoft Excel,the patterns and characteristics of climate changes in the sources areas of the Yellow River were studied with the methods of the linear regression method, cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. The linear regression method was used to study the variation trends of the mean annual air temperatureMAAT)and annual precipitation on annual and decadal scales. The cumulative anomaly method and Mann-Kendall test were used to test trends and abrupt jumps of the MAAT and annual precipitation. The Morlet wavelet analysis was used to detect the change interval of the MAAT and precipitation. The results demonstrated that the climate in the Madoi station showed a significant warming trend,the MAAT varied between-2. 07 and-5. 50 and averaged at-3. 67℃, the annual precipitation varied between 184. 0 mm and 485. 6 mm and averaged at 321. 5 mm,and the climate trends were 0. 28℃·10a ~(-1)and 10. 2mm·10a ~(-1),respectively. The climate trends were 0. 148℃·10a ~(-1),0. 212℃·10a ~(-1),0. 279℃·10a ~(-1),0. 501℃·10a ~(-1)for the spring,summer,autumn and winter respectively. The climate were warmer since 1989,the abrupt change in the MAAT occurred in 1998,and the significant increasing of the MAAT started from 2010. Trends of precipitation in the spring and summer were 3. 883mm· 10a ~(-1)and 4. 506mm·10a ~(-1),respectively,and contributed greatly to the annual precipitation. The climate change interval analysis revealed that the MAAT fluctuated significantly with the intervals of 25,14,11 and 6 years,and the annual precipitation fluctuated with the intervals of 45,30,12 and 5 years,respectively. The primary intervals for the MAAT and annual precipitation were 12 and 30 years,respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147812
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 冻土工程国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
罗栋梁,金会军. 黄河源区玛多县1953 ~2012年气温和降水特征及突变分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2014-01-01,28(11):1010-1016
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