This study analyzed the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the net primary productivity of ecosystem, as well as response mechanism of net primary productivity under future scenarios. Meanwhile, the study was based on the landscape dynamic simulation model CA-Markov coupled future regional climate model data A1B scenario mode, to build model of the net primary productivity of ecosystem to climate change and landscape dynamic response. Ultimately, this study achieved a quantitative analysis of the impact of human activities and climate change on the net primary productivity of ecosystem. In this study, the net primary productivity of ecosystems in Ebinur valley increased 223.27 GgC from 2005 to 2020. The landscape dynamics lead to an increase of 141.01 GgC and the climate change lead to an increase of 82.26 GgC. Recently, human activities on land cover change is the primary factors. Although the impact of climate change is small, but its trend increases year by year.