globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5238469
论文题名:
气候变化对陕西猕猴桃主要气象灾害风险的影响预估
其他题名: Potential impacts of climate change on the main meteorological disaster risk of kiwifruit in Shaanxi province
作者: 屈振江; 柏秦凤; 梁轶; 张勇; 王景红; 刘璐
刊名: 果树学报
ISSN: 1009-9980
出版年: 2014
卷: 31, 期:5, 页码:1021-1028
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 猕猴桃 ; 气候变化 ; 灾害风险 ; 影响
英文关键词: Kiwifruit ; Climate change ; Disaster risk ; Impacts
WOS学科分类: HORTICULTURE
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 【目的】预估未来陕西猕猴桃生产主要气象灾害的发展趋势和空间分布变化。【方法】通过构建气象灾害风险指数,利用RCP4.5排放情景下的气候变化预估数据对未来50 a的猕猴桃越冬期冻害、芽膨大期冻害及日灼等3种气象灾害风险进行了预估,并与基准期进行对照分析。【结果】基准期内关中北部和秦岭北麓沿线越冬期冻害和芽膨大期冻害风险较高,关中东部和汉中盆地的日灼灾害易发。预计未来陕西猕猴桃芽膨大期冻害风险将降低,越冬期冻害的重度风险区和轻度风险区将向中度风险过渡,关中东北部和陕南东部日灼风险将增大。【结论】秦岭北麓基地县未来应注意冻害风险,渭南和商洛等地应严防日灼危害。汉中盆地未来3种主要气象灾害的综合风险较低,可在该区域适度扩大猕猴桃种植规模。
英文摘要: 【Objective】To estimate the main meteorological disaster trends and changes in spatial distribution of Shaanxi kiwifruit in the future.【Method】 By constructing meteorological disaster risk index and using the climate change projections data of RCP4.5 emission scenarios estimated the disaster risk of kiwifruit winter freeze injury, kiwifruit bud enlargement freeze injury and kiwifruit sunburn injury in the next 50 years.【Result】The results showed that during the standard period,the risks of kiwifruit winter freeze injury and kiwifruit bud enlargement freeze injury could be high in northern Guanzhong and along the north of Qinling mountain,the kiwifruit sunburn injury could occur with high frequency in eastern Guanzhong and Hanzhong Basin. In the future, the risk of Shaanxi kiwifruit bud enlargement freeze injury would decrease,the severe risk area and mild risk area of kiwifruit winter freeze injury would tranfer to moderate risk area, and the risk of kiwifruit sunburn injury would increase in northeast Guanzhong and eastern Shannan.【Conclusion】 In the future, more attention should be paid to kiwifruit winter freeze injury and kiwifruit bud enlargement freeze injury in the north of Qinglin mountain,and to kiwifruit sunburn injury in Weinan and Shangluo districts. The three main meteorological disaster integrated risk would be lower in the future in Hanzhong Basin,so this district would fit for the expansion of kiwifruit production moderately.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147868
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 陕西省经济作物气象服务台, 西安, 陕西 710015, 中国

Recommended Citation:
屈振江,柏秦凤,梁轶,等. 气候变化对陕西猕猴桃主要气象灾害风险的影响预估[J]. 果树学报,2014-01-01,31(5):1021-1028
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[屈振江]'s Articles
[柏秦凤]'s Articles
[梁轶]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[屈振江]'s Articles
[柏秦凤]'s Articles
[梁轶]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[屈振江]‘s Articles
[柏秦凤]‘s Articles
[梁轶]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.