globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5034885
论文题名:
武汉市低碳化发展的情景分析
其他题名: Scenario Analysis of Low Carbon Development in Wuhan
作者: 黄宇; 吴晓煦; 朱志超
刊名: 环境科学与技术
ISSN: 1003-6504
出版年: 2014
卷: 37, 期:1, 页码:1040-1047
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 碳减排 ; 情景分析 ; 脱钩曲线
英文关键词: CO_2 emission ; scenario analysis ; decoupling curve
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 大量研究表明,全球气候变化的主要原因是人类活动带来的温室气体,特别是CO_2排放的急剧增加造成的。目前武汉市正处于工业化和城市化进程快速推进的阶段,在相当长一段时期内,其能源的消耗和CO_2的排放将快速增加,从而给武汉市碳减排的实施带来难度。为了给武汉市制定碳减排目标、推动低碳城市试点提供科学依据,文章采用情景分析的方法从工业减排、交通出行、建筑节能等方面定量核算CO_2的减排潜力;并且在分析武汉市碳排放现状的基础上预测了武汉市未来CO_2排放水平,分析武汉市在不同减排潜力下GDP增长与CO_2排放量之间的脱钩关系,结果表明,武汉市GDP的高速增长在未来几十年内若仍然依赖于化石能源的消耗,即使在强化减排方案下也难以使GDP的增长与CO_2排放量脱钩;只有在GDP保持适当增速,增速下降为2020年10%、2030年为8%、2040年为6.5%、2050年为5%时,CO_2排放量在优化方案和强化方案的情景模式下方可分别在2040年和2030年出现拐点。针对研究结果,就如何使城市发展与CO_2排放脱钩提出措施建议。
英文摘要: A lot of studies have shown that the main reason for global climate change is the sharp increase in greenhouse gases emissions,especially carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activities. Wuhan City is in an accelerating stage of industrialization and urbanization,the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will grow rapidly for a long time. In order to set a carbon emission reduction target,provide the scientific basis for promoting low-carbon city,this study used a method of scenario analysis to quantify the potential of reducing carbon emissions in the aspect of industry,transportation and construction industry. The carbon emission of the city was forecasted by analyzing the current carbon emissions,and the GDP growth in different carbon emissions reductions. Results showed that if the rapid growth of GDP will still rely on fossil energy consumption in the coming decades,it is difficult to decouple GDP growth and carbon emissions even if in the strengthening carbon emission reduction plan,only when GDP keeps an appropriate growing rate,which goes down to 10% in 2020,8% in 2030,6.5% in 2040,5% in 2050,the carbon emissions will reach the inflection points for optimum plan in 2040 and for strengthening plan in 2030 respectively. It also proposed a series of strategic and political suggestions which aim at the research results in the relationship between carbon emissions and city developing.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147947
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 武汉市环境保护科学研究院, 武汉, 湖北 430015, 中国

Recommended Citation:
黄宇,吴晓煦,朱志超. 武汉市低碳化发展的情景分析[J]. 环境科学与技术,2014-01-01,37(1):1040-1047
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[黄宇]'s Articles
[吴晓煦]'s Articles
[朱志超]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[黄宇]'s Articles
[吴晓煦]'s Articles
[朱志超]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[黄宇]‘s Articles
[吴晓煦]‘s Articles
[朱志超]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.