globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5185661
论文题名:
南水北调西线工程引水区气候变化趋势
其他题名: Climate Change Trend Analysis in Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project
作者: 黄晓荣1; 柴雪蕊2; 杨鹏鹏2; 赵静薇2
刊名: 南水北调与水利科技
ISSN: 1672-1683
出版年: 2014
卷: 12, 期:3, 页码:1061-1073
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 趋势 ; Hurst系数 ; 时空特性
英文关键词: Mann-Kendall ; climate change ; trend ; Mann-Kendall ; Hurst coefficient ; spatial and temporal characteristics
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 以南水北调西线工程引水区及邻近地区共13个气象站近60年的降雨、温度、日照时数、平均风速、平均湿度、平均水汽压资料为基础,分别运用Mann-Kendal法、Hurst系数法和小波方法对气象系列进行趋势、持续性和周期性分析。结果表明:各气象站温度年序列均呈显著上升趋势,而四季中的冬季上升尤为明显;降雨年序列92%的站点呈不明显上升趋势,但在春季上升显著;日照年序列64%的站点呈下降趋势。在空间分布上,气候因子趋势显著的站点多集中在河源段。各气象因子的Hurst系数均大于0.5,说明系列正持续性效应明显,未来变化趋势与过去基本一致。此外,各气象因子序列具有较明显的6~18年震荡周期。
英文摘要: Based on the precipitation,temperature,sunshine duration,mean wind speed,average relative humidity,and average vapor pressure data at 13meteorological stations in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and adjacent regions over the past 60years,the Mann-Kendall test,Hurst coefficient method,and wavelet method were used to perform the trend,continuity,and periodicity analysis on these meteorological factors.The results indicated that(1)the temperature at each station increases significantly,especially in the winter;(2)annual precipitation at 92%of total stations has an insignificant increasing trend,but precipitation has a significant increasing trend in the spring;and(3)annual sunshine duration at 64%of total stations shows a decreasing trend.Stations that have apparent variation trends of meteorological factors often belong to headwater catchment.Hurst coefficients of meteorological factors are were all greater than 0.5,which indicated a positive long-term continuity and that the variation trend in future is similar to that in the past.Morover,each meteorological factor sequence had an obvious cycle of 6to 18years.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148032
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.四川大学, 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国
2.四川大学水利水电学院, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国

Recommended Citation:
黄晓荣,柴雪蕊,杨鹏鹏,等. 南水北调西线工程引水区气候变化趋势[J]. 南水北调与水利科技,2014-01-01,12(3):1061-1073
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