globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5293010
论文题名:
乌审旗气候变化与农牧业生产之间的关系
其他题名: A Study on Relationship between Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Uxin Banner,Inner Mongolia
作者: 张彩霞1; 刘华民1; 王立新2; 王炜1; 清华2; 刘东伟2; 卓义2; 成文联3
刊名: 内蒙古大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 1000-1638
出版年: 2014
卷: 45, 期:6, 页码:106-112,126
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 乌审旗 ; 农牧业生产 ; 气候-生产力模型 ; Ricardian模型
英文关键词: Uxin Banner ; agriculture productivity ; "climate-productivity" model ; Ricardian Model
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 基于乌审旗1961-2010年气象数据与农牧业生产数据,分析了乌审旗近50年来气候变化规律、年末牲畜存栏变化、及其与农牧业收入之间的关系,在此基础上建立了气候要素与农牧业收入的气候一生产力关系模型和Ricardian模型.结果表明:MT、MTmaX、MTmin、WI、CI以及H-PER呈上升趋势,其中MT、Mtmax、Mtmin上升速率分别为0. 25℃/10a、0. 22℃/10a、0. 27℃/10a、7. 86mm/10a;AP 下降速率为8. 67mm/10a.在该时段,年末牲畜存栏头数和载畜量呈增长趋势,年末大牲畜头数呈下降趋势;农牧业生产与气候要素变化有着密切的关系:MT、MTmax、MTmin、WI、CI、H-PER和SH分别与农牧业产值呈正相关;WS、大牲畜存栏数与农牧业产值分别成负相关.气候一生产力模型预测的农牧业产值与实际农牧业产值之间的相关性在alpha = 0.01水平上分别达到0. 753,0. 766,决定系数R分别为0. 723和0.729, 气候一生产力模型比Ricardian模型更适用于乌审旗地区;整体来看,气候因素对农牧业收入的影响大于资本投入对农牧业收入的影响.
英文摘要: Based on the climate change and agricultural production data from Uxin Banner during 1961 - 2010, changes of climate and agricultural production and relationship between climate change and agricultural production were analyed,a "climate-productivity" model and Ricardian model were established. The results are as follows: (1) Trend of MT, Mtmax, Mtmin, WI, CI and HPER in Uxin Banner is significantly changing with the rate of 0. 25°C/10a,0. 22°C/10a,0. 27°C/10a,7. 86mm/10a; AP is decreasing with the rate of 8. 67mm/10a. (2) Total number of livestock and livestock capacity show a increasing trend,large livestock population is decreasing. (3) MT,Mtmax, Mtmin,WI,CI,H-PER,SH are positively correlation with agriculture and animal husbandry output value. WS,a large number of livestock are negatively related to agriculture and animal husbandry output value. (4) Correlation coefficients between agriculture-animal husbandry output value predicted by "climate-productivity" model and the actual value of agriculture-animal husbandry are 0. 753 and 0. 766 at levels alpha = 0.01,the determinated coefficient R are 0. 723 and 0. 729. "Climate-productivity" model is more suitable than Ricardian model for Uxin Banner. Overall,climate factors have an influence stronger than capital investment on the income of agriculture-animal husbandry.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148040
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.内蒙古大学生命科学学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010021, 中国
2.内蒙古大学环境与资源学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010021, 中国
3.防化指挥工程学院生物防护教研室, 北京 102205, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张彩霞,刘华民,王立新,等. 乌审旗气候变化与农牧业生产之间的关系[J]. 内蒙古大学学报. 自然科学版,2014-01-01,45(6):106-112,126
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