globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5048356
论文题名:
IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论
其他题名: Highlights of the IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report
作者: 秦大河
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2014
卷: 10, 期:1, 页码:107-113
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 温室气体
英文关键词: IPCC AR5 ; WGI ; climate change ; greenhouse gas ; IPCC AR5 ; WGI
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)第一工作组(WGI)报告的亮点结论,是过去7年全世界气候变化科学研究成果凝练出来的精华。20世纪50年代以来全球气候变暖的一半以上是人类活动造成的。1971年以来人为排放温室气体产生热量的93%进入了海洋,海洋还吸收了大约30%人为排放的CO_2,导致海表水pH值下降了0.1,等等。采用全球耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的模式,预估未来全球气候变暖仍将持续,21世纪末全球平均地表温度在1986-2005年的基础上将升高0.3~4.8℃。限制气候变化需要大幅度持续减少温室气体排放。如果将1861-1880年以来的人为CO_2累积排放控制在1000 Gt C,那么人类有超过66%的可能性把未来升温幅度控制在2℃以内(相对于1861-1880年)。
英文摘要: Highlights of the IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are the essence refined from the researches in the field of climate change physical science in the past seven years. More than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature since the 1950s was caused by the human influence. Nighty-three percent of the energy resulting from the anthropogenic CO_2 emissions since 1971 is stored in the ocean. Besides, ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO_2, causing the decrease in pH of ocean surface by 0.1, etc. Based on the CMIP5 models, it is projected that global warming will continue. Relative to 1986-2005, the global mean surface temperature by the end of the 21st century will increase by 0.3~4.8℃. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Controlling the warming caused by anthropogenic CO_2 emissions alone with a probability of >66% to less than 2 ℃ since the period 1861-1880, will require cumulative CO_2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1000 Gt C since that period.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148077
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 中国气象局, 中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
秦大河. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2014-01-01,10(1):107-113
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