globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5180993
论文题名:
未来RCPs情景下珠江流域降水特征的模拟分析
其他题名: FUTURE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OVER THE PEARL RIVER BASIN FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
作者: 杜尧东1; 杨红龙2; 刘蔚琴1
刊名: 热带气象学报
ISSN: 1004-4965
出版年: 2014
卷: 30, 期:3, 页码:1084-1092
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候学 ; 气候变化 ; RCPs排放情景 ; 珠江流域 ; 区域模式
英文关键词: RegCM4 ; climatology ; climate change ; RCPs scenario ; Pearl River Basin ; regional climate model ; RegCM4
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 利用全球模式(BCC_CSM1.1)驱动区域模式RegCM4,模拟分析了 RCP8.5和RCP4.5排放情景下未来2010-2099年珠江流域降水基本特征、强度分布和极端降水事件的变化特征。研究表明,RegCM4区域气候模式可刻画出珠江流域极端降水的特征。RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下降水变化特征一致,未来不同时段(2020s、2050s和2080s)珠江流域的年平均降水量减少,春季和冬季减少,夏季和秋季增加,而且年平均和四季的降水频率均减少,强度增加(春季除外)。降水基本特征的变化导致降水强度分布改变,春季除外,不同时段的年和四季的降水极值(降水90th和95th分位值)的年平均值均增加,增幅最大为秋季,表明未来时段极端降水强度增加。未来不同时段珠江流域的年最大日降水量的5年重现期值在柳江流域、红水河、桂江流域和珠江三角洲(珠三角)地区增加,增幅30%~45%。RCP8.5排放情景下,未来2080s时段珠三角地区的年最大日降水量5年重现期值相当于现在时段8~10年的重现值,50年值相当于现在时段100年的重现期值,表明未来这些地区的极端降水事件发生频率增加。
英文摘要: Based on the RegCM4 climate model system, we simulated the distribution of the present climate (19611990) and the future climate (2010-2099, under RCPs emission scenario) over the whole Pearl River Basin. From the climate parameters, a set of mean precipitation, wet day frequency, and mean wet day intensity) and several precipitation quantiles are used to assess the expected changes in daily precipitation characteristics for the 21st century. Meanwhile the return values of precipitation intensity with an average recurrence of 5,10, 20, and 50 years are also used to assess the expected changes in extreme precipitation events in this study. The structure of the change across the precipitation distribution is very coherent between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The annual, spring and winter average precipitation reduces while the summer and autumn average precipitation increases. The basic diagnostics of precipitation show that the frequency of precipitation is projected to reduce, but the intensity is projected to increase. The wet day quantiles (q90 and q95) also increase, indicating that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in future. Meanwhile, the 5-year return value tend to increase by 30%?45% in the basins of Liujiang River, Red Water River, Guihe River and Pearl River Delta region, where the 5-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 8?10-year return value of the present climate, and the 50-year return value corresponds to the 100-year return value of the present climate over the Pearl River Delta region in 2080s under RCP8.5, which indicates that the warming environment will give rise to change in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148137
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作者单位: 1.广东省气候中心, 广州, 广东 510080, 中国
2.深圳市国家气候观象台/深圳市气象局, 深圳, 广东 518040, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杜尧东,杨红龙,刘蔚琴. 未来RCPs情景下珠江流域降水特征的模拟分析[J]. 热带气象学报,2014-01-01,30(3):1084-1092
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