globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5315868
论文题名:
海南岛1961?2011年气候变化特征分析
其他题名: Variation Characteristics of Climate Change in Hainan Island During 19612011
作者: 张明洁1; 张京红1; 刘少军1; 车秀芬1; 李文韬2
刊名: 热带作物学报
ISSN: 1000-2561
出版年: 2014
卷: 35, 期:12, 页码:1087-1098
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 线性倾向估计 ; 突变检验 ; 小波分析 ; 气候变化 ; 海南岛
英文关键词: Linear trend estimation ; Mutation test ; Wavelet transform ; Climate change ; Hainan Island
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 应用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验和Morlet小波函数变换分析了海南岛1961~2011年的年平均和四季平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均和四季降水量、年降水日数、年强降水日数、年降水强度等气象要素的时间序列变化特征。结果表明:(1)近51 a来海南岛气候变暖趋势明显,通过信度为0.05的显著性水平检验,其中,年平均最低气温和冬季平均气温的上升趋势最为显著,气候倾向率分别为0.28℃/10 a和0.29℃/10a各气温要素均在20世纪80年代后期发生突变,并存在3~4 a和12 a时间尺度的周期变化。(2)年平均和四季降水量呈微弱的线性增加趋势,而达到暴雨等级的年强降水日数和年降水强度线性增加趋势明显,分别通过了信度为0.05和0.01的显著性水平检验。(3)四季降水量和年降水日数存在12~14a时间尺度的周期变化,年降水量、年强降水日数和年降水强度存在8~10a时间尺度的周期变化,同时,各个要素均叠加有周期较小的高频振荡。
英文摘要: In this paper, the linear trend estimation, M -K mutation test and wavelet transform of Morlet function were used to analyze the variation characteristics of temperatures, precipitation, precipitation days and precipitation intensity in Hainan from 1961 to 2011. The results showed that (1) The trend of Hainan climate warming in recent 51 years is clearly, which attained the 0.05 significance level test, especially the annual mean minimum temperature and the average temperature in winter which had the most significant upward trend for the climate tendency rate was 0.28 ℃/10 a and 0.29 ℃/10 a, respectively. Besides, all the temperature factors mutated in later 1980s and had significant 3~4 year and 12 year periods. (2) Annual and seasonal precipitation presented a weak linear increasing trend as well as the number of annual precipitation days reached storm rainfall grade and precipitation intensity presented a clearly linear increasing trend, attained the 0.05 and 0.01 significance level test respectively. (3) The wavelet analysis showed that the change in seasonal precipitation and the number of rainy days had significant 12?14 year periods. Annual precipitation, the number of heavy rain days and precipitation intensity had significant 8?10 year periods. In addition, smaller cycles was superimposed upon the change of every elements.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148146
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.海南省气候中心, 南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口, 海南 570203, 中国
2.海南省气象探测中心, 海男省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口, 海南 570203, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张明洁,张京红,刘少军,等. 海南岛1961?2011年气候变化特征分析[J]. 热带作物学报,2014-01-01,35(12):1087-1098
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