globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5328262
论文题名:
基于SPEI的近50年青藏高原高寒草地自然保护区气候变化研究
其他题名: Climate Changes in the Alpine Grassland Nature Reserves on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Recent 50 Years Based on SPEI Index
作者: 刘世梁1; 赵海迪1; 董世魁1; 安南南1; 苏旭坤1; 张翔2
刊名: 生态环境学报
ISSN: 1674-5906
出版年: 2014
卷: 23, 期:12, 页码:1-10--10-10
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气温 ; 降水 ; 气候变化 ; 自然保护区 ; 高寒草地
英文关键词: temperature ; precipitation ; climate change ; nature reserves ; alpine grassland
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 青藏高原高寒草地为重要的生态脆弱区,也是3大无人区自然保护区可可西里、羌塘和阿尔金山所在地,由于缺乏气候监测站点,气候变化研究较少。基于自然保护区周边16个气象站点资料,通过1957─2011年逐年的日气候资料,利用3种模型分析了该区域气温与`降水量的时间变化趋势,并利用综合了降水与温度的降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析了干旱演变的趋势,同时利用Kriging插值法,分析了3大保护区的气候变化的差异。结果表明,近55年以来,最高、最低气温和年平均气温上升趋势明显,Mann-Kendall 趋势分析达到极显著性水平,年平均温度增长率为0.71℃/10a。进一步比较了区域平均值法、线性模型与指数模型3种方法下降水量的变化趋势,结果表明,直线模型拟合的结果数值最高,指数模型的变异最大,而平均值法数值低于直线模型拟合的结果,指数模型能够更好的模拟降水量与海拔之间的关系,年平均降水量波动较大,20世纪60年代开始逐渐增加,70年代中期有所下降,但总体上呈现增加的趋势,Mann-Kendall 分析趋势显著。降水增加量约为10 mm/10a。SPEI指数表明,近50年来,保护区呈现总体由干向湿发展的趋势。自然保护区内降水量,气温与变幅差异较大,可可西里、羌塘与阿尔金山的气温的平均值分别为1.9、15.4和6.0℃降水分别为261、141和107 mm/a。本研究利用SPEI揭示了保护区气候变化规律,并分析了温度降水的空间变异性,为保护区管理提供依据。
英文摘要: Based on the data from the 16 meteorological stations around alpine grassland nature reserves (Kekexili, Qiantang, Aejinshan), we analyzed the regional temperature and precipitaton trends from 1957-2011 using the daily precipitation data. The results showed that, in the past 55 years, the annual maximum, minimum and average temperature increased significantly. Mann-Kendall method showed the increasing trend exhibited a very significant level and the temperature growth rate was 0.71°C/10a. By comparing three methods including regional average method, linear regression mthod and exponential model for simulating precipitation change, we found that linear regression model had a higher value, exponential model had the largest variations and regional average method was lower than the linear regression model. Exponential model can well fit the relationship between preciptiation and elevation. In general, there were large fluctuations of the annual average precipitation. Precipitation showed increasing trend in 1960s and decreasing trend in 1970s Overall, there was a significant increasing trend based on Mann-Kendall analysis. Also, SPEI index which was integrated precipitation and temperature was used to analyze the drought dynamics and Kriging interpolation to reveal the spatial differences of three nature reserves. SPEI index showed that the climate in these nature reserves had a trend from dry to wet condition. The average annual precipitation, temperature and variations varied greatly among the three grassland nature reserves. The average annual temperature values for Kekexili, Qiangtang and Aerjinshan nature reserve are 1.9, 15.4 and 6.0°C and precipitation values are 261, 141 and 107 mm/a. In summary, we analyzed the dynamics of climate change based on SPEI index, and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation. The results provide basis for nature reserve management.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148190
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.北京师范大学环境学院, 水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
2.阿尔金山国家级自然保护区管理局, 库尔勒, 新疆 841000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘世梁,赵海迪,董世魁,等. 基于SPEI的近50年青藏高原高寒草地自然保护区气候变化研究[J]. 生态环境学报,2014-01-01,23(12):1-10--10-10
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