globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5261767
论文题名:
泾河流域潜在蒸散量的时空变异
其他题名: Spatiotemporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration during current and future period in the Jinghe watershed
作者: 赵姹1; 李志1; 刘文兆2; 王小静1
刊名: 生态学报
ISSN: 1000-0933
出版年: 2014
卷: 34, 期:19, 页码:1117-1124
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 泾河流域 ; 潜在蒸散量 ; 统计降尺度 ; 情景分析
英文关键词: Jinghe watershed ; potential evapotranspiration ; statistical downscaling ; scenario analysis
WOS学科分类: BIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
中文摘要: 潜在蒸散量是水文循环中的重要变量,分析其当前特征并预测未来变化,对于区域干旱和水文特征分析具有重要的参考意义。基于15个气象站点的日数据、NCEP再分析数据以及HadCM3的预测数据,在分析当前潜在蒸散量的基础上,应用统计降尺度方法对泾河流域21世纪的潜在蒸散量进行了预测。结果表明,1961-2005年泾河流域潜在蒸散量年均值为934. 6 mm,且存在空间差异,整体由东向西南方向递减;时间变化上呈不显著的上升趋势。21世纪泾河流域潜在蒸散量呈显著的上升趋势,但存在季节差异,夏季增幅较大而冬季增幅较小;空间分布基本保持现有模式,但区域差异增大。潜在蒸散量增加可能加剧泾河流域的干旱状况,需提前采取一定的应对措施。
英文摘要: Potential evapotranspiration (ET_0) is a key variable of hydrological cycle and has important applications to hydrological modeling and crop irrigation scheduling. Under the background of global warming,analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of the present and future ET_0 can provide important information for regional water resource management and sustainable agricultural development. To study the impacts of ecological construction and climate change in the past 50 years on the hydrology in the Jinghe watershed, some researches have assessed the changes of ET_0 for the present period ; however, almost no study has focused on the potential changes of ET_0. The objective of this study is to project the change of ET_0 during 21~(st) century on the basis of the current ET_0 analysis and further discuss its impacts on climate in the Jinghe watershed. The data used in this study included daily weather data from 15 meteorological stations, NCEP reanalysis data which reflects the quasi-observed climate condition and GCM grid outputs from HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios. Penman-Monteith (PM) method and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were used to calculate ET_0 for the present period of 19612005 and project ET_0 for the future period of 20112099,respectively. The determination coefficient and Nash - Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient were used to assess the performance of SDSM. The inverse distance weighted interpolation and nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal change of ET_0, respectively. Results showed that ET_0 calculated by PM formula correlated to the pan evaporation well,which means that the estimated ET_0 is reliable. With annual average of 934.6 mm for the present period, ET_0 had a spatial difference decreasing from the east to the southwestern part of the Jinghe watershed. An insignificant upward trend of annual ET_0 was detected for the present period and an abrupt change occurred in 1977. The monthly ET_0 distributed as a single peak curve with the greatest and smallest value in June and December, respectively. During 21~(st) century, ET_0 would greatly increase by 1.9 mm/ a and 0.9 mm/a under A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively. ET_0 appeared to increase dramatically sipce 2049 and have an upward abrupt change in 2061. Future ET_0 also varied among seasons with the greatest increase in summer and the least in winter. The spatial distribution of future ET_0 was similar to the current period,but the regional difference would increase over time. The aridity index calculated by the ratio of ET_0 to precipitation revealed that the Jinghe watershed would be threatened by more severe drought during 21~(st) century, and most regions would have semiarid climate at the end of 21~(st) century though now it is a transition region with semiarid and subhumid climate. The uncertainties in this study are mainly from GCM and downscaling method ; however, as the GCM from HadCM3 used in this study has the best performances in simulating Chinese climate and SDSM has good performances in downscaling the present ET_0,the results should be reliable and will be further validated with more GCM data and downscaling methods. The continuous increase in ET_0 and drought would aggravate the water shortage and further influence the ecological construction and regional development in the Jinghe watershed ; therefore, some countermeasures should be adapted in advance to minimize the adverse impacts.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148273
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.西北农林科技大学资源环境学院, 杨凌, 712100
2.西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所, 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 杨凌, 712100

Recommended Citation:
赵姹,李志,刘文兆,等. 泾河流域潜在蒸散量的时空变异[J]. 生态学报,2014-01-01,34(19):1117-1124
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