以绍兴市作为研究区域,利用茶场物候资料和茶叶生产资料,采用积温法建立乌牛早茶树物候模型、茶树芽叶采摘量模型和经济产出模型,结合气象资料建立历史资料序列,分析气候变化对乌牛早茶树物候期、霜冻灾害和经济产出的变化。结果表明:近40年2月份平均气温升高使绍兴市乌牛早茶树开采期提前1.34?2. 48 d ? 10 a~(-1),但除绍兴县外Mann-Kendall检验均未通过0.05显著性检验水平;3月份平均气温显著升高使乌牛早茶树采摘期缩短1.03?1.29 d ? 10 a~(-1),经济产出减少272.86?347. 66元?人~(-1)? 10 a~(-1),Mann-Kendall检验均通过0.05显著性检验水平;3月份降水造成乌牛早茶树的经济损失率随时间变化不明显;春季霜冻是影响乌牛早茶树经济产出的主要灾害之一,在气候变化背景下,霜冻风险变化趋势不明显,但霜冻灾害造成的茶叶经济损失率呈减少趋势。
英文摘要:
Taking Shaoxing City as the study area, tea tree phenological data and tea production data were collected to establish Wuniuzao tea phenological model,tea leaf picking amount model and economic output model by adopting the accumulated temperature method. A sequence of historical data was established by combining meteorological data, and the influences of climate change on the phenology of Wuniuzao tea tree,frost disaster and economic output were analyzed. The results showed that the increase in February's average temperature over the past four decades led to the early arrival of Wuniuzao tea production period in Shaoxing City, with 1. 34-2.48 d ?10 a~(-1) in advance, but the Mann-Kendall tests failed to get a level of significance of 5% except in Shaoxing County. The significant increase in March's average temperature shortened the picking period of Wuniuzao tea 1. 03 -1. 29 d ? 10 a~(-1),reduced economic output of 272. 86-347. 66 RMB Yuan ? person~(-1) ? 10 a~(-1),and the Mann-Kendall tests of all counties achieved a level of significance of 5%. The influence of rainfall in March on the economic loss of Wuniuzao tea was not significantly associated with time. Spring frost was one of the main disasters affecting the economic output of Wuniuzao tea. Frost risk did not have a significant trend in the context of climate change, but the tea economic loss resulting from frost disaster showed a trend of decrease.