globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5103296
论文题名:
石羊河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量对气候变化的响应模拟及预测
其他题名: Simulation and estimation of reference evapotranspiration responsing to climate change in Shiyang River basin
作者: 牛纪苹; 粟晓玲
刊名: 水利学报
ISSN: 0559-9350
出版年: 2014
卷: 45, 期:3, 页码:1142-1150
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 参考作物蒸发蒸腾量 ; 石羊河流域
英文关键词: SDSM ; climate change ; reference evapotranspiration(ET_0) ; Shiyang River basin ; SDSM
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 模拟和预测气候变化对石羊河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET_0)时空分布的影响,为发展节水农业和科学利用水资源提供参考依据。根据石羊河流域及周边11个气象站点19512012年的逐日气象资料,使用Penman-Monteith公式计算现状ET_0,利用大气环流模型HadCM3的输出和SDSM统计降尺度模型,预测A2、B2两种排放情景下未来石羊河流域2020s,2050s和2080s的ET_0,使用反距离加权插值法(IDW)和Mann-Kendall检验分别研究ET_0的空间分布特征和随时间的变化趋势。结果表明,石羊河流域多年平均ET_0值为1 061mm,高值区位于东北地区,低值区位于西南地区,预计未来2020s、2050s和2080s,在HadCM3模式的A2情景下ET_0将分别增加6%、 14%和23%,B2情景下将分别增加7%、12%和17%,增幅较大的地区位于流域东南, 2050s和2080s在B2情景下增幅低于A2情景。石羊河流域ET_0在未来将持续增加,2050s之后增加趋势更为显著。
英文摘要: Simulating and estimating the influence of climate change on spatiotemporal characteristics of reference evapotranspiration(ET_0) provides support for developing water-saving agriculture and efficient use of water resources. The Penman-Monteith equation is employed to calculate daily ET_0 for the 11 meteorological stations located in and around the Shiyang River basin during 19512012. While ET_0 in 2020s,2050s and 2080s are downscaled from HadCM3 (Hadley centre Coupled Model,version 3) outputs under A2 and B2 emission scenarios by SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model). The spatial distribution and temporal trend in ET_0 are investigated by Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation and Mann-Kendall test,respectively. The results show that the annual mean ET_0 in the Shiyang River basin is 1 061mm,the highest values are located in the northeast region,and the lowest values are located in the southwest region. HadCM3 projects an ET_0 increase of 6%,14%,23% under A2 scenario in the 2020s,2050s and 2080s,respectively,while it projects an ET_0 increase of 7%,12%,17% under B2 scenario,an obvious amplification is detected in the southeast region,in 2050s and 2080s,the ET_0 increase under B2 scenario are lower than those under A2 scenario. It will be a significant ET_0 increasing trend in the future and after the 2050s.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148401
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国

Recommended Citation:
牛纪苹,粟晓玲. 石羊河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量对气候变化的响应模拟及预测[J]. 水利学报,2014-01-01,45(3):1142-1150
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