globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5178243
论文题名:
水循环演变中多因素综合影响贡献量分解方法
其他题名: A new method to quantitatively separate the effects of multi-factors on the water cycle evolution
作者: 刘佳嘉1; 周祖昊1; 贾仰文1; 王浩1
刊名: 水利学报
ISSN: 0559-9350
出版年: 2014
卷: 45, 期:6, 页码:1143-1153
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水循环演变 ; 多因素 ; 贡献量 ; 分解方法
英文关键词: water cycle evolution ; multi-factors ; contributions ; partitioning approach
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 为了有效计算气候变化和人类活动对流域水循环过程的影响,需对多因素影响贡献量进行分解。由于多因素之间相互影响,单个因素影响量之和,一般并不完全等于所有因素综合影响量,因此传统方法多用于对两个因素进行影响量分解。本文提出一种基于分布式水文模型的分解方法,用于对多个因素进行影响量分解。该方法能综合考虑不同因素之间的相互作用,使得单因素影响量之和恰好等于所有因素综合影响量,并从理论和应用两个方面对此进行论证。相比于传统方法,新方法能更加科学地分解两个及两个以上因素对水循环过程影响的贡献量,同时在基准期和变化期的选择上也更具有灵活性。该方法不仅可用于水循环演变过程中多因素贡献量分析,还可与具有物理机制的模型相结合,应用于大气、环境和生态演化过程的贡献率分析。
英文摘要: In order to separate the impacts of the climate change and human activities,it needs to separate the impacts of the multi-factors. When using the traditional methods to calculate the contribution of multi-factors,the sum of each factor′s contribution is not always equal to the comprehensive changes because of the interrelation between each factor. Thus,most of the traditional methods focus on the two factors contribution analyses. A new method,which is based on the simulation of the distributed hydrological model,is promoted to solve this problem. The new method could handle the interrelation between different factors, and assure that the sum of each factor′ s contribution just equals to the total changes, which is proved theoretically and practically in this paper. Contrasting to the traditional methods, the new method could partition the contribution of more than two factors,and it is flexible to select the base period and impacted period. Moreover, the new method could be used in study of atmosphere, environment, ecology,and so on,as well as water cycle,combining with the physically based simulation models.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148404
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国水利水电科学研究院, 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室
2.水利部水资源与水生态工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘佳嘉,周祖昊,贾仰文,等. 水循环演变中多因素综合影响贡献量分解方法[J]. 水利学报,2014-01-01,45(6):1143-1153
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