globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5309397
论文题名:
宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应
其他题名: Response of Drought and Flood Disasters to Climate Change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
作者: 杨蓉; 延军平
刊名: 水土保持通报
ISSN: 1000-288X
出版年: 2014
卷: 34, 期:5, 页码:1150-1156
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 宁夏 ; 旱涝灾害 ; 响应特征
英文关键词: climate change ; Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region ; drought and flood disasters ; response characteristics
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 利用宁夏回族自治区20个气象站自建站以来到2012年共52 a的降水数据资料,运用趋势线、滑动平均等数理分析方法对宁夏52 a以来的降水变化特征进行了分析,并应用降水Z指数和正负20%的降水距平指标对宁夏的旱涝灾害特征进行了分析。最后基于信息预测理论的对称性及可公度法,对宁夏未来的旱涝灾害进行了趋势判断。结果表明:(1)宁夏52 a年降水量以8. 57 mm/10 a的速度递减,从20世纪90年代起干旱化趋势明显。(2)宁夏旱涝灾害交替发生,旱涝出现的频率为32.7%和28. 7%,降水正常年份仅占38.5%。(3)宁夏旱涝灾害的发生具有显著对称性周期特征,未来发生旱灾的可能年份是2014和2015年,发生涝灾的可能年份是2017年。
英文摘要: According to 52-year precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from their establishments in 2012,the mathematical analysis methods such as the trend line method and 5-year moving average method were applied to analyze the precipitation variation characteristics in more than 50 years,and the precipitation Z index and the precipitation anomaly indicators of plus or minus 20% points were also used to analyze the characteristics of droughts and floods in the region, then a trend judg ment of the droughts and floods was made based on the symmetry of information forecast theory and commensurable calculation method. The results showed: (1) The precipitation in more than 50 years of Ningxia region was reduced at a rate of 8. 57 mm/10 a,and the arid trend was obvious since 1990s; (2) The drought and flood disasters occurred alternately, the frequency of drought and flood was 32. 7% and 28. 7%, respectively,and it was only 38. 5% in a normal year; (3) The droughts and floods occured with obvious characteristics of symmetry cycle,the drought years may occur in 2014 and 2015,floods may occur in 2017.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148422
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨蓉,延军平. 宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应[J]. 水土保持通报,2014-01-01,34(5):1150-1156
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