globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5089537
论文题名:
兰州地区500余年来旱涝变化规律分析
其他题名: Analysis on the Variation of Drought & Flood Grades from 1470 to 2008 in Lanzhou Area
作者: 赵玉1; 穆兴民1; 蒋冲2
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2014
卷: 21, 期:1, 页码:1151-1160
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 干旱 ; 洪涝 ; 周期 ; 兰州地区
英文关键词: climate change ; drought ; flood ; period ; Lanzhou area
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 旱涝是影响兰州及其周边地区的频发性自然灾害。利用兰州地区1470-2008年间旱涝等级序列,借助累积距平法、滑动T检验和小波分析等方法,研究了500余年来兰州地区旱涝变化分布特征与发展规律。结果表明:兰州地区旱涝演变存在15801721年、1757 1789年、1891-1930年的3个显著干旱阶段和1533 1580 、17211757年、17891891、1953-1961年的4个显著洪涝阶段,且旱多于涝;兰州地区旱涝序列存在年代际尺度和百年尺度的突变;不同时间尺度上正负相位交替出现,波动明显,兰州地区旱涝变化的第一、二、三主周期分别为108 a、39 a和13 a;19512008年,由于气温升高、降水减少,兰州地区旱涝气候变化表现为干旱化趋势。
英文摘要: Drought and flood are the main natural disasters surrounding Lanzhou area. We described the variation characteristics of drought & flood grades of Lanzhou area from 1470 to 2008 by performing the manners of accumulative departure analysis, running T-test and Morlet wavelet analysis. Results showed that the drought & flood severity has 3 obvious drought stages and 4 flood stages nearly the 539 years. The frequency of drought is larger than flood. There are two abrupt changeson 100-year scale and 14 abrupt changes on decadal scale in Lanzhou area. Positive and negative phrase appear alternately during different time scales. The major cycles of drought & flood grades transformation are 108 years, 39 years and 13 years, respectively. With the rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, the drought & flood had been showing the dry trend from 1951 to 2008.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148428
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国
2.北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国

Recommended Citation:
赵玉,穆兴民,蒋冲. 兰州地区500余年来旱涝变化规律分析[J]. 水土保持研究,2014-01-01,21(1):1151-1160
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