globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5226011
论文题名:
鄱阳湖流域气候变化特征及其对径流的驱动作用
其他题名: Characteristics of Climate Variability and Its Driving Effect on the Change in Runoff Across the Poyang Lake Catchment
作者: 叶许春1; 刘健2; 张奇3; 杨勋林4
刊名: 西南大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 1673-9868
出版年: 2014
卷: 36, 期:7, 页码:1169-1181
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 趋势分析 ; 径流 ; 蒸发率函数 ; 鄱阳湖流域
英文关键词: climate variability ; trend analysis ; runoff ; evaporation ratio function ; the Poyang Lake catchment
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 以1960-2007年鄱阳湖流域14个国家气象站的气象监测资料以及五河水系中5个水文监测站的径流资料为基础,采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析了流域气温、降水、潜在蒸发以及径流的变化趋势,在此基础上,通过建立降水和潜在蒸发对径流的驱动模型,定量分析了不同年代气候变化对赣江、信江以及抚河径流变化的影响.研究表明,1960-2007年鄱阳湖流域气温升高,降雨增加,潜在蒸发量却呈长期的下降趋势,径流变化过程与降雨过程总体一致,但不同时期各站点变化趋势差异较大.气候变化对径流的驱动作用表明,相对于流域1960 s的气候条件,其他年代气候变化均起着增大径流的作用,其中气候变化驱动作用最大的1990s导致径流增加194.3~321.3 mm,最小的2000s导致径流增加32.7~106.5 mm.此外,受不同年代流域降雨变率以及流域调蓄作用影响,1970s和1990s气候变化导致的径流增量以信江为最,而1980s和2000s则是赣江最大.
英文摘要: Based on the observed data of 14 meteorologica 1 stations and 5 hydrological stations across the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960-2007,this paper analyses the change trends of temperature,precipitation, potential evaporation and runoff depth by means of Mann-Kendal 1 test.After that,a runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is established and the impact of climate change on the runoff is quantified for the sub-catchments of the Ganjiang,the Xinjiang and the Fuhe Rivers in different decades.The results show that during the period of 1960-2007 the temperature and precipitation of the Poyang Lake catchment increased,while the calculated potential evapotranspiration decreased significantly.The changes in runoff were generally consistent with the change in catchment precipitation.The driving effect analysis reveals that compared to the 1960 s,the climate changes played an important role in increasing runoff depth during the other decades.The most obvious driving effect occurred in the 1990s and led to an increase of the runoff depth by194.3 mm-321.3 mm,while the increase in the 2000 swas just 32.7 mm-106.5 mm.In addition,because of the influence of precipitation anomalies and catchment storage in different decades,the Xinjiang River sub-catchment had the maximum increased runoff depth caused by climate change in the 1970s and the 1990s, while the Ganjiang River sub-catchment had the maximum increased runoff depth in the 1980s and the 2000s.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148516
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.西南大学地理科学学院, 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 重庆 400715, 中国
2.山东省水利科学研究院, 水资源与环境重点实验室, 济南, 山东 250013, 中国
3.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210008, 中国
4.西南大学地理科学学院, 重庆 400715, 中国

Recommended Citation:
叶许春,刘健,张奇,等. 鄱阳湖流域气候变化特征及其对径流的驱动作用[J]. 西南大学学报. 自然科学版,2014-01-01,36(7):1169-1181
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