globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5321732
论文题名:
能源-环境-经济气候变化综合评估模型研究综述
其他题名: Review on the integrated assessment model of energy-environment-economy for the global climate change
作者: 段宏波1; 朱磊2; 范英2
刊名: 系统工程学报
ISSN: 1000-5781
出版年: 2014
卷: 29, 期:6, 页码:117-125
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 综合评估模型 ; 气候变化关键特征 ; 研究综述
英文关键词: climate change ; integrated assessment model ; key features ; survey
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 长期性、全球性、环境损害性、技术依赖性以及不确定性是全球气候变化问题的基本特征,从这个角度来看,当前气候综合评估研究在理论建模和实际应用方面都有实质性的进展.然而,现有工作的研究局限也不容忽视,这主要包括以下几个方面:技术处理方面,考虑内生技术时对技术本身的成熟度、R&D投资的挤出效应以及溢出效应等关注较少;气候损失度量方面,对非市场化损失以及适应性的考察还有待加强;在不确定性研究方面,对显著影响代际效用分配的时间偏好率的不确定性,以及技术学习效应的不确定性等方面的研究不足.
英文摘要: Climate change is a long-term, global, environmental damaging, technology-dependent and uncertain issue. Despite substantial work on both model approaches and applications, there are several limitations in current researches: first, technological maturity, crowd-out effect and spill-over effect of R&D are important aspects of endogenous technological advances, but they were considered in current studies. Second, non-market damage is still a tough nut to crack for climate damage assessment, but not enough attention is paid to the adaption which proves to be equally important for mitigating the climate change. Finally, little efforts were taken to the pure time preference rates and learning rates, whose uncertainties will to a large extent affect the allocation of utility among different generations and the effectiveness of technical learning(including both learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching effect), respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148527
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院大学管理学院, 北京 100190, 中国
2.中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100190, 中国

Recommended Citation:
段宏波,朱磊,范英. 能源-环境-经济气候变化综合评估模型研究综述[J]. 系统工程学报,2014-01-01,29(6):117-125
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