利用DIVA-GIS软件对中国栓皮栎的地理分布及气候特征进行研究,并用该软件中的Bioclim和Domain两个模型评估未来潜在分布区对气候变暖的响应.结果表明:中国栓皮栎分布区可分为横断山脉区、云贵高原区、华北山地区、华东山丘区、辽鲁半岛区、台湾海岛区和秦岭巴山区7个亚区,跨越7个温度带、2个干湿区、17个气候区,包括8种气候类型.秦岭-大巴山-伏牛山为栓皮栎的现代多度中心.适合栓皮栎生长的年平均温度为7. 5~ 19. 8 ℃,年降雨量为471~ 1511 mm. Domain和Bioclim模型的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)分别为0. 910、0. 779,前者预测的高度适生区为秦岭、大巴山、伏牛山、桐柏山、大别山、云贵高原东部和西部、苏皖南部丘陵和华北部分山地.气候变暖趋势下栓皮栎潜在分布区可能向北回缩,面积减小.
英文摘要:
The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions:Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,North China,East China,Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula,Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones,2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions,including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling,Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7. 5-19. 8 ℃ annual precipitation 471-1511 mm,is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values) of Domain and Boiclim models were 0. 910,0. 779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling,Daba, Funiu,Tongbai,and Dabie mountains,eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui,part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.