globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5300932
论文题名:
近50 a玛纳斯河流域上游气候变化的分析
其他题名: Climate Change in the Upstream of Manas River Basin in the Past 5 Decades
作者: 吉磊; 何新林; 刘兵; 唐凯; 张少博
刊名: 长江科学院院报
ISSN: 1001-5485
出版年: 2014
卷: 31, 期:12, 页码:1197-1203
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 滑动平均 ; 小波分析 ; 突变检验 ; 玛纳斯河流域
英文关键词: climate change ; moving average ; wavelet analysis ; mutation test ; Manas River Basin
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 根据玛纳斯河流域上游肯斯瓦特水文站1959-2008年气温、降水量及1984-2000年蒸发量观测资料,运用线性回归、Pearson相关系数、5 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验以及Morlet小波分析方法对流域上游气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明:①近50 a玛纳斯河流域上游气候总体趋向于暖湿,其中年均气温显著升高,且年内气温变化存在明显的季节差异,夏、秋两季增温趋势显著,降水量总体也呈增加趋势,但不够显著,且年内分配不均匀,降水量主要集中在春、夏两季;②近20 a流域年蒸发量围绕均值1 651.2 mm上下波动,总体呈微小增加趋势;③气温和降水量在20世纪90年代期间发生由低向高的突变,并且存在明显的年际周期变化。
英文摘要: According to observed data of temperature, precipitation series (1959-2008) and evaporation series (1984-2000) at Kensiwate hydrological gauging station in the upstream of Manas River Basin. We analysed the climate change in this region by using linear regression, Pearson correlation coefficient, moving average for five years, Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. Results showed that: 1) the climate of upstream Manas River Basin was mostly warm and wet in the past 5 decades. The annual average temperature increased remarkably with obvious seasonal difference within the year (temperature increased in summer and autumn). Precipitation was increasing as a whole but was not significant, and distributed unevenly within the year (precipitation concentrated in spring and summer); 2) The annual evaporation fluctuated around 1651.2 mm in the recent two decades, displaying a trend of slight increase; 3) Temperature and precipitation increased abruptly from low level to high level during the 1990s, and there was an obvious inter-annual cycle change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148620
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 石河子大学水利建筑工程学院, 石河子, 新疆 832003, 中国

Recommended Citation:
吉磊,何新林,刘兵,等. 近50 a玛纳斯河流域上游气候变化的分析[J]. 长江科学院院报,2014-01-01,31(12):1197-1203
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