为了了解吉木乃县自1961年以来的气候变化特征,依据吉木乃气象台站月平均气温、降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall 突变检验、Morlet小波变换分析19612012年吉木乃县气温、降水变化特征,并结合区域气候模式PRECIS 输出的气候情景数据,预估SRES A1B情景下20212050年吉木乃县气温、降水变化趋势。结果表明:(1)近52年吉木乃县年平均气温与年降水量分别以0.4℃/10 a、10 mm/10 a 的速率呈明显上升趋势,1988、1986年分别为两者的升高突变年,且20年和18年是两者变化的主要周期;(2)就四季气温增幅而言,秋季>春季>夏季>冬季,其中冬季气温升高不明显;就四季降水量变化而言,仅有冬季降水量增加明显;(3)PRECIS 能够模拟出19712000年吉木乃县气温、降水的季节变化特征。气温模拟值以冷偏差为主,降水模拟值以正偏差为主;(4)SRES A1B情景下,20212050年吉木乃县年均温、年降水量预计分别以0.75℃/10 a、5.6%/10 a 的速率升高和减少。较气候基准时段,未来30年年均温预计升高2.8℃,年降水量预计减少9.5%。
英文摘要:
In order to study the climate change character in Jimunai since 1961, based on observation of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from Jimunai meteorological station, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet transformation methods were used to analyze the variation of temperature and precipitation during 1961 to 2012, meanwhile, the responses of temperature and precipitation during 2021 to 2050 under SRES A1B scenario in Jimunai County was analyzed by using PRECIS. The results showed that: (1) the annual mean temperature and precipitation during 52 years increased with the rate of 0.4℃ per 10 years and 10 mm per 10 years, abrupt change occurred obviously in 1988 and 1986,dominant periodic oscillation performed 20 years and 18 years, respectively; (2) in terms of seasonal temperature, the increment was autumn>spring> summer>winter, and statistical significance wasnt presented in winter, in terms of seasonal precipitation, only winter presented obvious increasing trend; (3) PRECIS might reproduce seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in Jimunai during 1971 to 2000, cold bias and positive bias were mainly performed in temperature and precipitation, respectively; (4) under SRES A1B scenario, the annual mean temperature and precipitation during 2021 to 2050 might vary with the rate of 0.75℃ per 10 years and -5.6% per 10 years. Compared with baseline, the annual mean temperature might increase 2.8℃ and precipitation would decrease 9.5%.