globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5215849
论文题名:
东北地区玉米气候产量变化及其对气候变化的敏感性分析
其他题名: Analysis on Climatic Maize Yield and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change in Northeast China
作者: 李辉1; 姚凤梅1; 张佳华2; 郝翠3
刊名: 中国农业气象
ISSN: 1000-6362
出版年: 2014
卷: 35, 期:4, 页码:1251-1257
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 东北地区 ; 气候类型 ; 气候因子 ; 玉米产量 ; 一阶差分
英文关键词: Northeast ; Climate types ; Climate factors ; Maize yield ; First-differences
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 选取1981-2009年东北地区具有连续气象资料和玉米产量资料的站点,按气温高低、日照时数长短和降水量多少将研究区分为4个气候类型,并用一阶差分法得到玉米气候产量,对各气候类型区内玉米产量、气候产量的变化趋势进行分析,并采用多元回归法分析玉米产量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明,1981-2009年东北地区玉米实际产量呈增长趋势,但其气候产量呈降低趋势。类型Ⅰ区,日照时数、平均气温和降水量均适中,玉米气候产量对平均最高气温、积温、日较差和日照时数较敏感,标准回归系数分别为-1. 244、1. 484、-0. 655和0. 502; 类型Ⅱ区,日照时数和平均气温较高,降水不足,光、热和温度间的相互配合较差,玉米产量对平均最低气温、积温、日较差和日照时数较敏感,标准回归系数分别为1. 325、-1. 739、-0. 272和-0. 515; 类型Ⅲ区,降水充足,玉米产量对平均最高气温、积温、降水和日照时数较敏感,标准回归系数分别为-2. 171、3. 450、0. 235和0. 493; 类型Ⅳ区,气温、降水和光照充足,玉米产量对平均最低气温、积温、降水和日照时数较敏感,标准回归系数分别为0. 88、-1. 014、0. 329和0. 256。各类型区玉米产量均对积温变化较敏感,在温度较高地区,对平均最低温度的变化较敏感; 温度较低地区,对平均最高温度的变化较敏感。在降水较多地区,玉米产量对降水和日照时数的变化较敏感; 降水较少地区,对日较差和日照时数的变化较敏感。
英文摘要: The meteorological stations with continuous meteorological data and maize yield data in Northeast China during 1981-2009 was divided into 4 zones according to temperature (T_(mean)),sunshine hours (SH) and precipitation(P),in which the climatic maize yield was calculated by using of first-differences method. The sensitivity of maize yield to climate change was analyzed by using of multiple-regression method. The results showed that the climatic maize yield decreased though actual maize yield increased during 1981-2009. The sensitivity of climatic maize yield to,in climatic type I zone,T_(max),AT,DTR (daily temperature range) and SH was high,with the standard coefficients were-1. 244,1. 484,-0. 655 and 0. 502 respectively. In climatic type II zone,the sensitivity of climatic maize yield to T_(min),AT,DTR and SH was high,with the standard coefficients were 1. 325,-1. 739,-0. 272 and-0. 515 respectively. In climatic type III zone,the sensitivity of climatic maize yield to T_(max),AT,P and SH was high,with the standard coefficients were-2. 171,3. 450,0. 235 and 0. 493 respectively. In climatic type IV,the sensitivity of climatic maize yield to T_(min),AT,P and SH was high,with the standard coefficients were 0. 88,-1. 014,0. 329 and0. 256 respectively. Climatic maize yield was sensitive to AT in all types zones,was sensitive to T_(min) in high temperature zones,was sensitive to T_(max) in moderate and low temperature zones. Climatic yield was sensitive to P and SH in high precipitation zones,and was sensitive to DTR and SH in moderate and low precipitation zones.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148812
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.中国科学院大学, 中国科学院计算地球动力学重点实验室, 北京 100049, 中国
2.中国科学院对地观测与数字地球科学中心, 北京 100094, 中国
3.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李辉,姚凤梅,张佳华,等. 东北地区玉米气候产量变化及其对气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象,2014-01-01,35(4):1251-1257
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[李辉]'s Articles
[姚凤梅]'s Articles
[张佳华]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[李辉]'s Articles
[姚凤梅]'s Articles
[张佳华]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[李辉]‘s Articles
[姚凤梅]‘s Articles
[张佳华]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.