选取新疆境内意大利蝗(Calliptamus italicus L.)适生区14个气象站1961 -2013年月降水量及平均气温资料,采用线性回归和趋势分析方法,分南疆地区、天山山区和北疆地区3个气候区对近53a(1961 -2013)降水量和气温变化特征进行分析。结果表明,(1)南、北疆地区年平均降水量均显著增加(P <0. 05),南疆以夏季增加为主,北疆以冬季增加为主,天山山区年平均降水量高于南、北疆地区,但其53a来变化不显著;(2)3个区域年平均气温均极显著升高(P<0. 01),南、北疆地区以冬季增温幅度最大,天山山区秋季增幅最大;(3)3个区域年平均最高气温均极显著升高(P<0.01),且均以秋季升幅最大;各区年平均最低气温均极显著升高(P< 0.01),南北疆地区冬季增幅最大,天山山区夏季增幅最大,其最低气温增幅高于最高气温。在全球气候变暖背景下,意大利蝗适生区近53a气候总体呈暖湿趋势,气候格局的显著变化,会导致蝗虫地理分布格局及灾变规律的重大改变。
英文摘要:
Based on the monthly average precipitation and temperature data from 14 meteorological stations in suitable distribution areas of Calliptamus italicus L. during 1961 -2013,the precipitation and temperature characteristics of 3 areas( Southern Xinjiang,Tianshan Mountains and Northern Xinjiang) during the past 53 years were analyzed by using of linear regressive analysis and moving average. The results showed that the average annual precipitation in Southern and Northern Xinjiang increased significantly ( P <0. 05),with an amplitude peak in summer in Southern Xinjiang, and in winter in Northern Xinjiang. The average annual precipitation in Tianshan Mountains was higher than that in Southern and Northern Xinjiang,but the increasing rate was insignificant. The average annual temperature presented an increasing trend at statistical significance level( P <0. 01)in 3 areas, and the rising trend was most significant in winter in Southern and Northern Xinjiang, while in autumn in Tianshan Mountains. The maximum temperature increased significantly(P < 0. 01 ) with an amplitude peak in autumn in 3 areas. The minimum temperature presented an increasing trend at statistical significance level( P <0. 01 )in 3 areas, and the rising trend was most significant in winter in Southern and Northern Xinjiang,while in summer in Tianshan Mountains. The rising trend of the minimum was higher than that of the maximum. In the background of global climate warming, the climate in suitable distribution areas of Calliptamus italicus L. during the last 53 years became warming-wetting , which could cause changes in geographical distribution and outbreak mechanism of locust.