globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5069423
论文题名:
广州、长沙、昆明气温对非意外死亡的短期效应研究
其他题名: The short-term effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou, Changsha and Kunming
作者: 谢慧妍1; 马文军2; 张永慧3; 刘涛2; 林华亮2; 肖建鹏2; 罗圆2; 许燕君3; 许晓君3
刊名: 中华预防医学杂志
ISSN: 0253-9624
出版年: 2014
卷: 48, 期:1, 页码:1269-1275
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 死亡 ; 温度 ; 气候变化 ; 分布滞后非线性模型
英文关键词: Mortality ; Temperature ; Climate change ; Distributed lag non-linear model
WOS学科分类: MEDICINE GENERAL INTERNAL
WOS研究方向: General & Internal Medicine
中文摘要: 目的探讨广州、长沙、昆明气温与居民死亡的关系,评估气温相关的非意外死亡风险,为制定应对气候变化的政策提供科学依据。方法收集20062009年广州、长沙、昆明逐日的气象和居民死亡数据,建立分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),以病例交叉设计控制时间长期趋势,分析在不同滞后情况(0?2、0?18、0?27 d)下气温与居民非意外死亡的关系。结果20062009年间广州、长沙、昆明的非意外死亡人数均表现明显的周期性,即冬季日死亡人数最高,春、秋两季的日死亡人数相对较低,夏季有个别高温日出现死亡例数升高。各城市的气温与日死亡数的关系呈L型(广州、昆明)或U型(长沙),广州、长沙、昆明日均气温分别高于28.2℃、24.5 ℃、23.2℃时,每升高1 ℃,在滞后0?2 d的条件下,居民非意外死亡的RR值分别上升4. 56% (95% CI:2. 74%?6. 63%)、5. 66% (95% CI:0. 22%?12. 65%)、- 3. 94% (95% CI: - 32. 77%?39. 01%);而当日均气温分别低于24. 8 ℃、20. 0 ℃、17. 3℃ 时,每下降1 ℃,居民非意外死亡的RR值均升高(广州滞后0?18 d 时,RR=3. 28%,95%CI:2.41%?4.10% ;长沙滞后0?2 d 时,RR=1.35%,95%CI:0. 31%?1. 77% ;昆明滞后0?27d时,RR=2. 42%,95%CI:1. 08%?3. 27%)。高温对人群死亡的影响表现为急性的短期效应,而冷效应比热效应持续的时间长。结论广州、长沙、昆明高温和低温均引起居民死亡风险升高;低温产生的效应相对延迟,但持续的时间较长。
英文摘要: Objective To explore the relationship between temperature and non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou, Changsha and Kunming;to evaluate the temperature-related risk of mortality; and thereby to provide scientific evidence for enacting the policy to tackle climate changes. Method Daily meteorology data and mortality data were collected in 2006-2009 in Guangzhou,Changsha and Kunming. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was established and applied in a case-crossover design, which controlled the secular trend of time, to estimate the specified effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality at conditions of lag 0-2,lag 0-18 and lag 0-27 days, respectively. Result An obvious seasonal periodicity was found in non-accidential mortality in Guangzhou, Changsha and Kunming during 2006-2009. The mortality number was comparatively high in the winters,and some high temperature days in summer; but was comparatively low in springs and autumns. An L-shaped relationship was found between temperature and mortality in Guangzhou and Kunming and a U-shaped relationship was found in Changsha. When daily mean temperature exceeded 28. 2 ℃,24. 5℃ and 23. 2 ℃, as average temperature increase 1℃,non-accidental mortality increased 4.56% (95% CI:2.74%-6. 63%),5.66% (95% CI:0. 22%-12. 65%),- 3. 94% (95% CI: -32. 77%-39. 01 %),respectively ; when daily mean temperature below 24. 8 ℃, 20. 0 ℃ and 17. 3℃, as average temperature decrease 1 ℃,the corresponding increase in non-accidental mortality were 3. 28% (95%CI:2.41%4. 10%) (lag 0-18 days),1. 35% (95% CI:0. 31%-1. 77%) (lag 0-2 days) and 2, 42% (95% CI:1. 08%-3. 27%) (lag 0-27 days),respectively. The effects of hot weather were acute and short term; while the effects of cold weather had a several days delay, but a longer persistence. Conclusions Extreme cold and hot temperature could increase the risk of non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou, Changsha and Kunming. The effects of cold weather had a several days delay, but a longer persistence.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148866
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.广东肇庆医学高等专科学校, 肇庆, 广东 526020, 中国
2.广东省公共卫生研究院, 广东 526020, 中国
3.广东省疾病预防控制中心, 广东 526020, 中国

Recommended Citation:
谢慧妍,马文军,张永慧,等. 广州、长沙、昆明气温对非意外死亡的短期效应研究[J]. 中华预防医学杂志,2014-01-01,48(1):1269-1275
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