globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5055399
论文题名:
两种降尺度方法对钱塘江流域日设计暴雨计算的影响
其他题名: Design Storm Estimation Using Two Downscaling Methods in Qiantang River Basin
作者: 张徐杰; 马冲; 朱仟; 泮苏莉; 许月萍
刊名: 中山大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0529-6579
出版年: 2014
卷: 53, 期:1, 页码:1271-1280
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 降尺度方法 ; 降雨频率
英文关键词: PRECIS ; LARS-WG ; climate change ; downscaling method ; PRECIS ; LARS-WG ; precipitation frequency
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 研究气候变化对水资源的可能影响,能让人类在面临气候变化时能够及时地采取相应措施。利用大气环流模式HadCM3的结果和国家气象局提供的钱塘江流域7个站点1961-1990年逐日实测气象资料,选取A1B排放情景,分别通过动力降尺度方法和统计降尺度方法,分析2011-2030时期(2020s)的日设计暴雨,并对两种方法计算得出的设计暴雨进行比较。结果表明,除个别站点外,在A1 B情景下,两种降尺度方法下极端暴雨出现的频率相比基准期都有所增加,其中动力降尺度方法下不同重现期的设计暴雨值增幅更大。
英文摘要: Studying the impacts of climate change on water resource can help human beings take meas-ures when facing problems.The results of HadCM3 and 7 meteorological sitesdaily data supplied by China Meteorological Administration in Qiantang River Basin are used to estimate design storms in 2020s under A1 B scenario by both dynamic and statistical downscaling methods.The final results show that ex-treme storms will increase in 2020s under A1 B scenario.Besides,the design storms for different return periods calculated through the dynamical method will increase more than those calculated through statisti-cal method.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148871
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 浙江大学水文与水资源工程研究所, 杭州, 浙江 310058, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张徐杰,马冲,朱仟,等. 两种降尺度方法对钱塘江流域日设计暴雨计算的影响[J]. 中山大学学报. 自然科学版,2014-01-01,53(1):1271-1280
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