globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5098155
论文题名:
基于 Hadgem2_ES的气候变化对金华江流域枯水变化的影响评估
其他题名: Hadgem2_ES-based Impact of Climate Change on Low Flow of the Jinhua River Basin
作者: 高希超1; 马冲1; 朱冠天2; 朱仟1; 许月萍1
刊名: 中山大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0529-6579
出版年: 2014
卷: 53, 期:2, 页码:1271-1282
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 多站统计降尺度 ; 枯水
英文关键词: GR4J ; climate change ; low flow ; GR4J model ; multi-site statistical downscaling
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 气候变化引发降雨径流等水文要素的变化已经成为学界的共识,浙江省内近年来频发的气候极端事件更是引起众多学者的重视。枯水水文作为水文学的一部分,分析其变化有其积极的实际意义。选取了金华江流域1975-2004年的日降水、温度和径流资料,使用多站统计降尺度方法,基于最新CMIP5中的Hadgem2_ES模型,利用GR4J水文模型模拟了未来(2071-2100年)的径流,重点分析了几个重要枯水指数7Q10和30Q10的变化。结果表明,未来这两个指数都有明显的上升趋势,即气候变化可能缓和金华江流域未来的枯水情况。
英文摘要: It is a common view that climate change has influenced hydrological elements such as precipi-tation,temperature and river flow.Zhejiang Province has witnessed the climate extremes with high fre-quency in recent years and it has drawn a lot attention of hydrologists.Low flow hydrology is a very im-portant part of hydrology.It is quite meaningful to analyze the low flow.The historical daily precipitati-on,temperature and flow in 1975 -2004 in the Jinhua River Basin are used as baseline data in this stud-y.Climate projections from Hadgem2_ES of CMIP5 for 2070-2100 are downscaled to station-scale pro-jections based on a multi-site statistical downscaling model GIST.The flows in future period are generated by a lumped hydrological model GR4J.Two typical low flow indices 7Q10 and 30Q10 are calculated and compared.The results show that the two indices have obvious rising trends,implying a better situation in low flow periods under climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148872
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.浙江大学建筑工程学院水文水资源研究所, 杭州, 浙江 310058, 中国
2.浙江省水文局, 杭州, 浙江 310009, 中国

Recommended Citation:
高希超,马冲,朱冠天,等. 基于 Hadgem2_ES的气候变化对金华江流域枯水变化的影响评估[J]. 中山大学学报. 自然科学版,2014-01-01,53(2):1271-1282
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