globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5327230
论文题名:
洞庭湖北部地区水稻旱灾风险评估
其他题名: Drought disaster risk assessment of paddy rice in the northern area of Dongting Lake region
作者: 王铸1; 叶涛1; 李景保2; 李曼1; 孟永昌1
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2014
卷: 23, 期:6, 页码:128-138
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水稻旱灾 ; 脆弱性建模 ; 致灾因子代理变量 ; 风险评估 ; 洞庭湖北部地区
英文关键词: paddy rice drought disaster ; vulnerability modeling ; hazards proxy variables ; risk assessment ; northern area of Dongting Lake region
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 全球气候变化的背景下,旱灾可能对未来农业生产及粮食安全造成日益严重的影响,开展种植业旱灾风险评估有着重要的意义。以中国洞庭湖北部地区作为研究区,依据历史旱灾记录选取水稻生育期内逐月降水量、气温、太阳辐射以及地表径流等气象水文要素,构建了上述要素与水稻因旱灾减产之间的脆弱性模型,识别了研究区水稻旱灾的致灾因子代理变量,在此基础上通过蒙特卡罗仿真对洞庭湖北部地区的水稻旱灾风险进行了评估。结果表明:(1)对水稻旱灾减产显著贡献的致灾因子代理变量为7月总降水量和8月总降水量,这两个月的各月降水量每减少1. 0 mm将使研究区水稻因旱灾的减产量相应上升2. 86%和3.34%; (2)5 a一遇、10 a一遇、20 a一遇以及50 a一遇的水稻旱灾损失率分别达到2.3%,11. 2% ,22.7%和50. 3%。
英文摘要: In the context of the global climate change,drought disaster may have increasinly serious influence on agriculture industry and food safety. It is significant to conduct drought disaster risk assessment of farm production. Choosing the typical area of northern area of Dongting Lake region as study area,the influence elements of monthly total precipitation,average temperature,total solar radiation and total surface runoff during the paddy rice growing period were selected to build vulnerability relationship with paddy rice output reduction due to drought. Based on historical records,proxy variables of hazard-formative factors of paddy drought were identified,and by Monte Carlo method, drought disaster risk was assessed. The results show that : (1) The proxy variables of hazard-formative factors that contribute evidently to the reduction of paddy rice output are total precipitation in July and August. Every 1.0 mm precipitation decrease will lead to 2. 86% and 3. 34% loss of the paddy rice in July and August respectively ; (2) The annual loss rates of the paddy rice caused by drought disaster for return periods of 5 , 10 ,20 and 50 years are 2. 3%,11. 2%,22. 7% and 50. 3%,respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148915
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.北京师范大学, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
2.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙, 湖南 410081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王铸,叶涛,李景保,等. 洞庭湖北部地区水稻旱灾风险评估[J]. 自然灾害学报,2014-01-01,23(6):128-138
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