以黑龙江省1954-2011年气温和主要粮食作物(玉米、水稻、大豆、小麦)产量等资料为基础,对黑龙江省气候变化及其对主要粮食作物产量的影响进行了分析。结果表明:黑龙江省近58 a 来平均气温呈线性升高,速率为0.34℃/10 a;黑龙江省主要农作物单产时间和空间变化同温度之间存在着显著的相关性,气温每升高1℃,可导致玉米、水稻、大豆、小麦单产分别增加约541. 6 kg/hm~2,336.8 kg/hm~2,195. 8 kg/hm~2,289.3 kg/hm~2。水稻种植范围向北向东扩展明显,比重逐年升高;小麦种植比重大幅度下降,种植范围呈明显北退;玉米种植比重在保证一个相对稳定的基础上向北部和东部不断延伸;大豆种植重心逐渐北移,种植比重显著增加。黑龙江省主要粮食作物产量的变化同气候变暖引起的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关。
英文摘要:
Based on data about air temperature and yield of main flood crops ( corn,rice,soybean,wheat) of Heilongjiang Province during 1954 -2011,the climate change and its influence on the yield of the main flood crops were analyzed. Results show that, the mean temperature of Heilongjiang Province increases linearly in recent 58 years and the increasing rate is 0. 34℃ /10 a. There is an obvious correlation between spatiotemporal change of main crops yield per unit area and temperature. When the temperature rises 1℃,the yield per unit area of corn, rice, soybean and wheat may increase about 541. 6 kg/hm~2,336. 8 kg/hm~2,195. 8 kg/hm~2 and 289. 3 kg/hm~2 respectively. Planting area of rice extends into north and east obviously, and the planting rate increases year by year, while the ratio of wheat planting decreases significantly, whose planting range recesses northward obviously. On the basis of relative stable planting rate, the planting range of the corn extends northword and eastword. Soybean planting range moves northward gradually, and its planting rate increases obviously. The yield change of main flood crops is related closely with the increase of accumulated temperature and northward shift of accumulated temperature belt caused by the climate warming. The accumulated temperature increase caused by climate warming and the JiWenDai moving eastward expansion are closely related in Heilongjiang province.