globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5370580
论文题名:
近50年渭河关中地区地表径流变化及其归因分析
其他题名: Streamflow changes of Weihe River in Guanzhong area in the past 50years
作者: 姜姗姗1; 占车生2; 贾仰文3; 牛存稳3; 王会肖1
刊名: 北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0476-0301
出版年: 2015
卷: 51, 期:1, 页码:1301-1307
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 归因分析 ; 径流 ; 水文模型 ; 气候弹性
英文关键词: climate change ; attribution analysis ; streamflow ; hydrologic model ; climate elasticity
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 采用流域水文过程模拟和水文气象统计学相结合的方法,归因分析了近50a来渭河关中地区地表径流的变化。通过对关中地区1958-2008年水文气象要素进行趋势检验分析,发现近50a来该区域地表径流量呈现显著下降趋势,而降雨量和潜在蒸散发量没有明显的变化,说明径流的变化主要受人类活动的影响,并用 Mann-Kendall法检验出1990年为径流过程的突变点 。基于此,构建SIMHYD月降雨 - 径流水文模型,以1958-1989年为模拟预处理期,1990-2008年为模拟检测期,通过模拟分析获得气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的归因分析结果。同时采用改进的气候弹性系数法对上述径流变化归因分析进行验证,也得到了近似的结果 。结果表明,气候变化对径流减少的影响程度为18% ~ 22%,而人类活动为78% ~82%。
英文摘要: Impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in Weihe River catchment were quantified by hydrological process simulation and statistical analysis.Data from 1958to 2008were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method to test trends of meteorological and hydrological elements.A significant decreasing trend in streamflow was found, while rainfall and potential evapotranspiration showed no significant trend, suggesting that changes in streamflow were mainly caused by human activities.The abrupt time point of streamflow change was 1990.SIMHYD rainfall-runoff model was constructed to simulate streamflow from 1958 to 1989 and from 1990to 2008.SIMHYD was calibrated and validated by monthly meteorological and hydrological observation data from 1958-1989(pre-treatment period).The model was then used to simulate streamflow in a testing period from 1990 to 2008, to obtain quantitative assessment of effects of climate variability and human activities.Improved climate elasticity approach was also used to analyze contribution of runoff change.These two methods were compared and verified, similar results were obtained.The contribution of climate variation to decrease in streamflow was found to be 18%-22%, and human activities 78%-82%.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148961
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.北京师范大学水科学研究院, 中国科学院陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
3.中国水利水电科学研究院, 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038, 中国

Recommended Citation:
姜姗姗,占车生,贾仰文,等. 近50年渭河关中地区地表径流变化及其归因分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版,2015-01-01,51(1):1301-1307
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[姜姗姗]'s Articles
[占车生]'s Articles
[贾仰文]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[姜姗姗]'s Articles
[占车生]'s Articles
[贾仰文]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[姜姗姗]‘s Articles
[占车生]‘s Articles
[贾仰文]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.