globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5641834
论文题名:
气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析
其他题名: Changing characteristics and cause analysis of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River under the background of climate change
作者: 齐冬梅1; 李跃清1; 陈永仁2; 赵旋1; 周长艳1
刊名: 冰川冻土
ISSN: 1000-0240
出版年: 2015
卷: 37, 期:4, 页码:1309-1323
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流 ; 长江源区 ; 气候变化 ; 高原季风
英文关键词: runoff ; source region of the Yangtze River ; climate change ; plateau monsoon
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 利用1960-2011年历年逐月长江上游通天河流域直门达水文站观测的流量资料、 长江源区气象台站观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料, 研究分析了长江源区径流变化特征及其气候归因. 结果表明: 2005年之前, 长江源区年及夏、 秋、 冬季的平均流量呈持续下降趋势, 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的平均流量均呈显著增加趋势. 其中, 以夏季平均流量的增幅最为明显, 年平均流量有4 a左右及12 a左右的变化周期. 高原夏季风、 长江源区夏季7、 8月地面感热、 流域降水量、 蒸发量、 气温及冰川和积雪融水均对长江源区流量变化有明显影响. 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的降水量呈明显的增加趋势, 而蒸发量呈明显的减少趋势. 同时, 温度急剧上升导致的冰川和积雪融水增多, 是2005年以来长江源区流量急剧增加的重要原因.
英文摘要: Using the monthly hydrological and meteorological observational data in the source regions of the Yangtze River and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data from 1960 to 2011, the variation characteristics of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River and its climate cause have been analyzed by a variety of analytical methods in this paper. Results show that the annual mean runoff and runoffs in summer, autumn and winter had a persistent declining trend in the source regions of the Yangtze River before 2005, and the annual mean runoff and seasonal mean runoffs have a notable increasing trend in the source regions of the Yangtze River after 2005; especially in summer, the increasing trend is very obvious. In a long-term, the annual mean runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River varies obviously, with quasi-periods of 4-year and 12-year. The plateau summer monsoon, the surface sensible heat in the source regions from July to August, precipitation, evaporation, temperature and the meltwater from snow and glaciers have evident contribution to the variation of runoff. After 2005, the annual and seasonal precipitations in the regions have increased notably, but the annual and seasonal evaporations in the regions have decreased significantly; the meltwater from snow and glaciers has increased due to temperature increasing notably; all of these have caused runoff sharp increase in the source regions of the Yangtze River since 2005. Under the above background of climate change, the runoff has sharply increased in the source regions of the Yangtze River since 2005.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148993
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作者单位: 1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610072, 中国
2.四川省气象台, 成都, 四川 610072, 中国

Recommended Citation:
齐冬梅,李跃清,陈永仁,等. 气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析[J]. 冰川冻土,2015-01-01,37(4):1309-1323
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