globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5540519
论文题名:
上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究
其他题名: Estimation ofWind Speeds for Different Recurrence Intervals in Shanghai
作者: 史军1; 徐家良1; 谈建国2; 刘坚刚3
刊名: 地理科学
ISSN: 1000-0690
出版年: 2015
卷: 35, 期:9, 页码:1335-1339
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 重现期 ; 最大风速 ; 极值Ⅰ型分布 ; 皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布 ; 上海
英文关键词: recurrence interval ; maximum wind speed ; extreme value type I distribution (EV-I) ; Pearson type III distribution (P-III) ; Shanghai
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区(县)不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区(县)10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。
英文摘要: Strong wind is defined as the instantaneous wind speed (also called maximum wind speed) at or above 17.0 m/s in meteorology. Strong wind is a disastrous weather phenomenon, it often causes agricultural disaster, house and wall destroyed and casualties and property losses. Therefore, it is quite useful and necessary to understand the characteristics of strong wind, and their impacts for the purpose of development of social economy and resource environment protection. Based on the historical wind speed observation data from 11 stations in Shanghai, the temporal changes of maximum wind speed for different recurrence intervals in urban areas of Shanghai during 1901-2011 and the spatial distributions of maximum wind speed for different recurrence intervals in suburbs and exurbs of Shanghai during 1974-2011 were estimated in this paper with extreme value type I distribution (EV-I) and Pearson type III distribution (P-III). Furthermore, the extreme wind speeds with different recurrence intervals were also estimated in each county of Shanghai during 1974-2011 based on the maximum wind speeds with different recurrence intervals estimated by P-III distribution and a gustiness factor of 1.7. The results indicate that the maximum wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years are 21.0, 24.9, 26.7 and 29.2 m/s respectively with the estimation of extreme value type I distribution, and they are 20.9, 24.4, 26.0 and 28.0 m/s respectively with the estimation of P-III distribution in Shanghai during 1901-2011. In comparison, the fitting precision of extreme value type I distribution is better than that of P-III distribution in urban areas of Shanghai during 1901-2011. Under the impacts of regional rapid urbanization and the reduced intensity of cold waves and the decreased number (and decreased intensity) of land-falling typhoons caused by global climate change, the maximum wind speed has decreased by approximately 0.8 m/s per decade in Shanghai during 1901-2011. During 1974-2011, the maximum wind speed with a recurrence interval of 10 years is the greatest in Jinshan, and the maximum wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 30, 50 and 100 years are the greatest in Nanhui or Pudong. For each county, the fitting precision of P-III distribution is better than that of extreme value type I distribution during 1974-2011. The maximum wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years are 19.0, 21.4, 22.6 and 24.1 m/s respectively at a height of 10 m with the estimation of P-III distribution. The extreme wind speed with a recurrence intervals of 10 is the greatest in Jinshan, and the extreme wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 30, 50 and 100 years are the greatest in Nanhui. The extreme wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years are 32.3, 36.4, 38.4 and 41.0 m/s respectively at a height of 10 m. Overall, the maximum wind speed and extreme wind speeds for different recurrence intervals are the least in urban areas, and they are the greatest in the southern coastal areas of Shanghai.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149092
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.上海市气候中心, 上海 200030, 中国
2.上海市气象科学研究所, 上海 200030, 中国
3.上海市防雷中心, 上海 200030, 中国

Recommended Citation:
史军,徐家良,谈建国,等. 上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究[J]. 地理科学,2015-01-01,35(9):1335-1339
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[史军]'s Articles
[徐家良]'s Articles
[谈建国]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[史军]'s Articles
[徐家良]'s Articles
[谈建国]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[史军]‘s Articles
[徐家良]‘s Articles
[谈建国]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.