FarmersPerception of Water Resource Shortage and Adaption in Continental River Basin of Arid Zone:A Case of the Middle-lower Reaches of the Shiyang River
In recent years, the farmers perception of environment change and their adaption strategies has been the research focus of the adaptation domain. Water resource shortage is the most serious environmental problem in the continental river basin of arid zone, it is badly in need of looking for the effective adaptation strategies in order to reduce the adverse impact of water resource shortage. Understanding the farmersperception of water resource shortage and adaption strategy selection is very important to determine the proper adaptation strategy and make scientific water resource management policy. Selecting the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River as the study case and through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal and investigation of plots, 367 household are investigated and sampled. Based on the investigation data and the MPPACC (a socio - cognitive model of private proactive adaptation to climate change) analysis framework which Grothmann and Patt provided, we analyze the farmersperception of water resource shortage and their adaption strategies, and analyze the impact of the farmerswater resource shortage perception on theirs adaption strategies by multiple linear regression model and binary logistic model. The results show: 1)These perception index are relatively high which include the farmers water resource shortage possibility perception, severity perception,adaption effect and adaption cost perception, the index of these perception is 4.65, 4.69, 4.19 and 4.38,respectively. However, the perception of self-efficacy is middle level and its index is 3.02; 2) The relationship between the farmerswater resource shortage risk perception and the adaption effect perception, the adaption cost perception are significant positive correlation, but the relationship between the risk perception and the adaption cost perception is insignificant negative correlation; 3)The diversification index of the farmersadaption strategy is 2.80, and the relationship between the diversification index of adaption strategy and the farmersseverity perception,adaption effect perception, adaption cost perception and self-efficacy perception are significant positive correlation;4) These perceptions which include risk perception, adaption effect perception and self- self-efficacy perception significantly influence the type of first adaption strategy. With the index of risk perception and adaption effect perception strengthening, the probability of prefer choice of contract adaption strategy will increase. However, with the index of self-efficacy perception strengthening, the probability of prefer choice of contract adaption strategy will decrease. Finally, we present the measures and proposals about promoting the farmersadaption ability and some potential improvements in some further researches.