globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5528160
论文题名:
气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述
其他题名: Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review
作者: 石晓丽1; 史文娇2
刊名: 地理学报
ISSN: 0375-5444
出版年: 2015
卷: 70, 期:9, 页码:135-141
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 贡献程度 ; 定量 ; 耕地格局
英文关键词: climate change ; human activities ; contribution ; quantitative ; cropland pattern
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 定量辨识气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因,是当今气候变化和土地利用变化领域的热点问题。目前研究大都结合耕地的时空变化格局和相关驱动因素进行双变量或多变量的定性分析,未进一步定量给出气候变化和人类活动的贡献程度。本文对国内外相关研究进行总结,介绍了定量评价气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献程度的5种主要研究方法,即模型分析法、数理统计法、框架分析法、指标评价法和差值比较法。综述了气候变化、人类活动以及两者共同作用对耕地格局变化的贡献归因的主要结论。总结了目前研究存在的方法综合性较差、数据全面性与准确性欠缺、尺度单一和解释片面等问题,针对以上问题,提出了从综合作用到具体因素的贡献程度归因评价的思路,并就数据、尺度与驱动力的解释问题提出了研究展望。
英文摘要: It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland in the fields of climate change and land use change. Relationships between spatial-temporal cropland changes and driving forces were studied at qualitative aspects in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland need to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to temporal-spatial cropland changes at quantitative aspects, e.g. model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. The progresses of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions were introduced. However, there were four defects in assessing the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. Moreover, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Meanwhile, we concluded a clue about quantitative approaches to assess the contributions from the synthetical aspect to specific driving forces. Besides, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149136
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室, 石家庄, 河北 050024, 中国
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
石晓丽,史文娇. 气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述[J]. 地理学报,2015-01-01,70(9):135-141
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