globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5495325
论文题名:
藏东南树木年轮记载的公元1560年以来的极端干旱事件
其他题名: EXTREME DROUGHT EVENTS SINCE 1560A.D. RECORDED BY TREE RINGS ON THE SOUTHEAST QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU
作者: 程雪寒; 吕利新
刊名: 第四纪研究
ISSN: 1001-7410
出版年: 2015
卷: 35, 期:5, 页码:1392-1401
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 青藏高原 ; 树木年轮 ; 极端干旱事件
英文关键词: SPEI ; the southeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau ; tree rings ; SPEI ; extreme drought events
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 青藏高原的极端干旱事件会导致高原内部河流的水文异常,进而对流域内的农业生产和人类生活产生巨大影响。然而,干旱事件发生的时空规律及其与全球变化的关系尚不明确。气象器测资料相对较短是极端干旱事件研究中的一个重要限制因素。本文利用西藏昌都地区3个采样点(马秀、热玉和腊久)的大果圆柏(Sabina tibetica Kom.)树轮宽度数据,分析了自1560年以来该区域极端干旱事件发生的特征。分析结果表明,树轮宽度可指示5~8月标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index,简称 SPEI),3个采样点树轮年表20世纪共同的极低生长年份(1972年、1984年和1995年)与藏东南地区20世纪的区域干旱事件一致(1954~2006年);在过去447年间(1560~2006年),3个采样点共同的极端干旱事件发生最频繁的时期为1650~1700年间,多达6次/50年,发生最少的时期有1600~1650年、1800~1850年和1950~2000年,每50年仅有1次;在20世纪,极端干旱事件的发生频率低于历史上的平均值。极端干旱发生最频繁的1650~1700年对应于太阳活动较弱的蒙德极小期(Maunder Minimum)。研究结果有助于进一步认识青藏高原极端干旱事件的发生规律及其与全球气候变化的关系。
英文摘要: Extreme drought events on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) could not only result in hydrological anomalies to the plateau-originated rivers but also involve deep influences on all systems to human beings within the watersheds. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of occurrences of extreme drought events and their linkages to large scale climate circulations and global changes are rarely understood. Few researches are developed related to extreme drought events was due to short meteorological and hydrologic records. In this study, we collected tree-ring samples (Sabina tibetica Kom.) from three sites on the southeast QTP (Maxiu : 31.08°N, 94.58°E ; Reyu :31.16°N, 95.24°E; Lajiu: 30.58°N, 96.18°E). To select climate sensitive trees, old trees with habitats characterized by shallow soil layers and more open canopy covers were preferred during the field sampling. Following the standard dendrochronological methods,we mounted,polished,cross-dated,and measured tree core samples. The successfully cross-dated tree ring width series were then subjected to ARSTAN software to be detrended using spline functions with 50% frequency response cutoff with half of the full length of the tree cores. Tree ring index was calculated as ratios of the raw measurements and the detrending functions for each core. To exclude autocorrelation effects, we derived residuals though fitting an autoregression model for each detrended tree ring index sequence. These residual series were at last averaged using bi-weight robust mean method to develop a chronology for each site (site chronology),as well as for the latter pooled dataset (the regional chronology). Climate data,including monthly mean temperature,monthly mean maximum temperature,monthly mean minimum temperature, monthly total precipitation, and monthly mean relative air humidity, was obtained from the Dingqing Meteorological Station (31.42°N, 95.6°E). Besides, Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with a 12-month time scale was retrieved over the region of 30.5° ~31.5°N, 94.5° ~ 96.5°E. The SPEI data was downloaded from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute website (http: // climexp. knmi. nl/). These climate variables were subsequently correlated with tree-ring chronologies by using correlation functions for the period 1954~2006A.D. We found that tree growth was significantly and positively correlated with mean May-August SPEI. The frequencies of low-growth events were thus analyzed since the 1560A.D. till 2006A.D. to infer regional extreme drought event history. The inferred frequency of severe drought events varied through time during past centuries. Extreme drought events occurred most frequently (6 out of 50 years) during the period 1650A.D.~ 1750A.D. The periods 1600 ~ 1650A.D.,1800 ~1850A.D.,and 1950 ~ 2000A.D. had relatively low incidence of extreme drought events (once for each period). Noticeably, the twentieth century had a below-average frequency of extreme droughts. The Indian summer monsoon is probably the most important climate forcing for the occurrence of the extreme drought events. Moreover, our results suggested that the period with most frequent drought events (1650 ~ 1700A.D.) coincided with the Maunder Minimum, a period of extreme solar inactivity that occurred between 1645A.D. and 1710A.D. It indicates that a possible linkage between regional drought events and solar activities though Asian summer monsoon.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149259
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 中国科学院植物研究所, 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室, 北京 100093, 中国

Recommended Citation:
程雪寒,吕利新. 藏东南树木年轮记载的公元1560年以来的极端干旱事件[J]. 第四纪研究,2015-01-01,35(5):1392-1401
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[程雪寒]'s Articles
[吕利新]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[程雪寒]'s Articles
[吕利新]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[程雪寒]‘s Articles
[吕利新]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.