globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5559940
论文题名:
上海能源消费碳排放变化及对局地气候变化的胁迫评价
其他题名: Carbon Emission Change of Energy Consumption and Its Stress Evaluation on Local Climate Change in Shanghai
作者: 王原1; 赵丽侠1; 喻霞1; 王祥荣2
刊名: 复旦学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0427-7104
出版年: 2015
卷: 54, 期:4, 页码:1403-1410
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 城市化 ; 碳排放 ; 胁迫评价 ; 相关系数
英文关键词: urbanization ; carbon emissions ; stress evaluation ; correlation coefficient
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 作为典型的河口城市,上海市受全球气候变化和局地气候变化的影响较为深刻.在快速城市化进程中,上海市碳排放量不断增加,能源消耗持续增长,面临着环境保护和经济增长的双重挑战.根据联合国气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提供的碳排放估算方法,基于对1985~2005年上海能源消费及1995~2006年终端能源消费的CO_2估算分析,选取能源消费总量、电力消费总量、工业能源消费量以及终端能源消费的CO_2排放量,分析与上海局地温度变化和湿度变化等相关气候指标的相关系数,构建能源消费对局地气候变化的胁迫模型.结果表明,上海进入快速城市化阶段以来,能源消费总量显著增长,城市化高速发展阶段能源消费增长要显著高于加速发展阶段; 1995~2006年上海终端能源消费的CO_2排放量持续递增,年平均增长率为6%,CO_2排放终端能源结构变化系数逐年增加,终端能源的CO_2排放趋向多元化结构,各产业部门的CO_2排放结构变化主要表现为由工业主导性排放结构逐渐向多产业部门排放格局的转化,其中交通运输、仓储和邮政业、批发零售业和住宿.餐饮业以及建筑业增长幅度较高;能源消费指标和温度变化指标的相关系数均通过P=0.01水平的显著性检验,其中和城郊温差的相关系数最高,均大于0.9,且通过P=0.001水平的显著性检验;能源消费各指标中工业能源消费总量和城郊温差的相关系数略高于能源消费总量和电力消费;能源消费的增加对城郊温差的胁迫关系符合三次多项式曲线增长.
英文摘要: As a typical estuary city,Shanghai has been affected profoundly by global and local climate change, especially in the process of the urbanization,carbon emissions and energy consumption of Shanghai kept increasing,facing the dual challenges of environmental protection and economic growth.According to the method for estimating the carbon emissions provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),based on the analysis of Shanghai's energy consumption in 19852005 and CO_2 estimation of terminal energy consumption in 19952006,we selected the total energy consumption,total power consumption,industrial energy consumption and CO_2 emissions of terminal energy consumption and analyzed correlation coefficient related to climate index such as change of local temperature and humidity,built energy consumption model of stress on local climate change. Since entering into the phase of rapid urbanization,the total energy consumption of Shanghai has increased dramatically,especially in the high-speed development stage of urbanization;the CO_2 emissions of terminal energy consumption of Shanghai kept increasing in 19952006,and the average annual growth rate is 6%,CO_2 emission coefficient of structure change increased year by year,the CO_2 emissions of the terminal energy's structure tended to be diversified,the CO_2 emissions structure has been mainly varied from industrial dominant discharge structure to multiple industry department pattern,above all,the growth rate of transportation,ware housing,postal service, wholesale&retail,hotel,restaurant industry and construction industry were more remarkable;The correlation coefficient energy consumption index and temperature index transit significance test with P=0.01 level,the temperature difference of suburbs has the highest correlation coefficient,is more than 0.9,and got through the P=0.001 level of significance test;The correlation coefficient of industrial energy consumption index and suburban temperature is higher than the total energy consumption and power consumption;The stress relations of the energy consumption's increase to suburban temperature difference are in accordance with the cubic polynomial curve.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149289
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作者单位: 1.安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 芜湖, 安徽 241003, 中国
2.复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200433, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王原,赵丽侠,喻霞,等. 上海能源消费碳排放变化及对局地气候变化的胁迫评价[J]. 复旦学报. 自然科学版,2015-01-01,54(4):1403-1410
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