Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff of Continental River in Arid Areas Taking Kensiwate Hydrological Station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin as an Example
Climate change has become a global issue of common concern to people. With climate change and human activity aggravation,water shortage has become a worldwide problem. Analysis the influence factors of the basin runoff change,quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff has the vital significance for reasonable allocation of river basin water resources and ecological construction. In recent 55 years,the annual runoff of Kensiwate hydrological station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin shows increasing trend. To analyze the evolvement rules of the runoff in Kensiwate hydrological station under the conditions of climate change and human activities,this study detected the variation characteristics of runoff and climate changes using linear regression, trend analysis and moving average on the basis of the annual data from 1955 to 2010. In addition,the break points of runoff,precipitation and evaporation were detected using Mann-Kendalls test and the cumulative departure method,which were 1995,1997 and 1996,respectively. The linear relationship between years and cumulative runoff,cumulative precipitation,cumulative evaporation from 1955 to 1995 and from 1996 to 2010 was analyzed by statistical analysis methods. The results of cumulative slope rate comparison method showed that the precipitation,evaporation and human activitiescontribution to runoff increase accounted for 59.64%,31.83% and 8.53%,respectively. According to the research results,climate change was the main factor of runoff variation.