根据青藏高原东部50个气象台站1958-2012年的气象资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、 Morlet小波法、反距离权重等方法,对青藏高原东部逐月平均气温、降水量、日照时数、平均风速的变化趋势和空间格局进行了分析。结果表明: ① 近55 a青藏高原东部年平均气温呈极显著升高趋势,降水量呈显著增多趋势,年日照时数和平均风速呈显著减少趋势。青藏高原东部气候总体上呈较明显的暖湿化趋势。② 青藏高原东部年平均气温在1993年发生了极显著的突变性升高,降水在1984年发生了显著的突变性增多,而平均风速和年日照时数分别在1992年和2001年发生了显著的突变性减少。③ 青藏高原东部年平均气温、降水量、日照时数和平均风速的第一主周期变化均为13 a。④ 青藏高原东部平均气温、年降水量总体由西北向东南递增,年日照时数大致由西北向东南递减,平均风速的空间变化不明显。
英文摘要:
According to the climate data from 1958 to 2012 of 50 meteorological offices in eastern Tibetan Plateau area,Using climate trend rate,cumulative departure method,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet, Inverse distance weighting methods to analyze the trend,characteristics and spatial distribution of monthly average air temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and wind speed in eastern Tibetan Plateau in recent 55 years. Results indicates that: ① The annual average air temperature showed a significant rising trend at the rate of 0.25 ℃ ? (10a)~(- 1),annual total precipitation showed a significant rising trend at the rate of 6.24 mm?(10a)~(- 1),annual sunshine hours showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of - 15.24(10a)~(- 1),average wind speed showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of - 0.06 m?s~(- 1)?(10a)~(- 1) in eastern Tibetan Plateau in recent 55 years. On the whole,the eastern Tibetan Plateau climate present a clear trend of warm-wet,but the direction and the rate of the regional climate change has obvious difference affected by the different natural environment. For example, the climate in southern Gansu,presents an obvious warm and dry phenomenon. ② Annual average air temperature occurred significant elevated in 1993 in eastern Tibetan Plateau,annual precipitation occurred significant rising in 1984,annual average wind speed and sunshine time occurred significant decrescence in 1992 and 2001, respectively. ③ The first primary change cycle of annual average air temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and wind speed is about 13 years. The climate change cycle of the eastern Tibetan Plateau has a strong consistency. It is of great help to the predict of climate change in eastern Tibetan Plateau. ④ In eastern Tibetan Plateau,the average air temperature showed a increase trend gradually from northwest to southeast in space, its changing trend is given priority to increasing. Annual precipitation showed a increase trend gradually from northwest to southeast,its changing trend is given priority to increasing. Annual sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend gradually from northwest to southeast, its changing trend is given priority to decreasing. The spatial change trend of average wind speed is complex relatively, the change tendency is given priority to decreasing,but its spatial distribution is not obvious.