globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5414573
论文题名:
近50年来悖牛川径流变化及影响因素分析
其他题名: The runoff variation characteristics and influencing factors in Beiniuchuan River
作者: 陈新华1; 郭巧玲1; 陈志辉2
刊名: 干旱区资源与环境
ISSN: 1003-7578
出版年: 2015
卷: 29, 期:5, 页码:143-149
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流变化 ; 降水 ; 人类活动 ; 悖牛川流域
英文关键词: runoff variation ; precipitation ; human activity ; Beiniuchuan River Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 利用新庙水文站的实测降水、径流资料,采用数学统计、M-K秩相关系数、R/S分析、降水-径流双累积曲线法等多种方法,分析了悖牛川河径流年际变化特征、径流变化趋势、降水和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:1)总体上,悖牛川流域多年径流变化呈下降趋势,20世纪末以来尤为明显;2)受降水和人类活动影响,径流量年际变化过程经历了3个阶段,其转折点分别是1979和1997年。降水对径流的影响呈减小趋势,影响率由1979-1996年的67.97%下降到1997-2010年的13.54%;人类活动对径流的影响呈显著增加趋势,影响率由1979-1996年的32.03%迅速上升到1979-2010年86.46%,成为影响径流变化的主导因素。3)新庙站径流量的Hurst指数为H=0.8735,表明未来一段时间内悖牛川径流量变化有持续递减的特征。
英文摘要: In the past 50 years,climate change and increasingly extensive human activities have greatly altered the runoff in Beiniuchuan River Basin.Based on the climate and hydrological data in Xinmiao station during 1966-2010,runoff variation characteristics and the influencing factors were studied.Mann-Kendall trend analysis, statistic analysis,R/S analysis,and double mass curve were used comprehensively in the study.The results indicated that the multi-year change of runoff had a decreased tendency in all,and this trend was the most evident since the end of the twentieth century.The runoff affected by rainfall and human activities appeared three change periods in which the turning years were 1979 and 1997 respectively.The effect of precipitation on runoff decreased,the influence rate reduced from 67.97% in 1979-1996 to 13.53% in 1997-2010.The influence of human activities on runoff gradually increased,the influence rate increased from 32.03% in 1979-1996 to 86.46% in 1997-2010.Since 1997 the human activities have moved into the primary factor.The Hurst index was 0.8735 for the Xinmiao station which indicates that the decreasing trends in Beiniuchuan River runoff would continue in the future.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149381
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.河南理工大学资源环境学院, 焦作, 河南 454003, 中国
2.黑河流域管理局, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陈新华,郭巧玲,陈志辉. 近50年来悖牛川径流变化及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2015-01-01,29(5):143-149
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