globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5579062
论文题名:
青藏高原21世纪气候和环境变化预估研究进展
其他题名: An overview of projected climate and environmental changes across the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century
作者: 张人禾1; 苏凤阁2; 江志红3; 高学杰4; 郭东林5; 倪健6; 游庆龙3; 兰措2; 周波涛7
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2015
卷: 60, 期:32, 页码:150-154
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 青藏高原 ; 气候变化 ; 环境变化 ; 21世纪变化预估
英文关键词: Tibetan Plateau ; climate change ; environmental change ; 21st century projection
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 本文回顾了21世纪青藏高原区域多种气候和环境要素变化预估研究的进展, 包括气温、降水、极端天气气候事件、冻土、积雪、冰川、径流和植被等, 预估结果主要来自于SRES和RCP情景下气候模式的预估以及物理统计模型的预估. 结果表明, 未来青藏高原地面气温将升高, 21世纪后期增温更显著. 总体来说21世纪高原降水以增加为主, 极端天气气候事件增加. 高原未来冻土面积缩小, 冻土活动层厚度增加, 积雪日数和积雪深度减少, 冰川将以退缩为主. 径流的未来变化较复杂, 不同流域之间的差异较大, 径流在不同流域表现为增加和减少并存. 青藏高原植被对气候变化的响应敏感而脆弱, 21世纪中后期青藏高原的生长季长度增加, 常绿林/森林出现在高原东部和南部, 灌丛植被类型将会扩展并入侵高寒草原. 根据已有的研究结果, 本文对这些气候与环境要素在21世纪中期(2030~2050年)和后期(2080~2100年)的变化进行了综合集成, 给出了它们在21世纪中期和后期的可能变化范围.
英文摘要: Research into projected climate and environmental changes across the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century is reviewed. Climate and environmental factors involved include surface air temperature, rainfall, extreme weather and climate events, frozen soil, snow cover, glaciers, runoff, and vegetation. Projections are mainly from climate model simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) as well as from physical statistical models. In the future, surface air temperature across the Tibetan Plateau will rise and this rise will become more rapid in the late 21st century. Generally, in that century, rainfall, extreme weather and climate events, and active layer depth of frozen soil across the plateau will increase. However, near-surface permafrost area, snow-covered days, snow water equivalent, and glacier coverage and amount will decrease. Changes of runoff across the plateau show complexity during the 21st century. Runoff varies greatly by drainage basin, with some basins showing increases and others decreases. Vegetation is sensitive and fragile in response to the climate change. In the middle and late century, growing season will lengthen, evergreen forest/woodland will replace alpine tundra on the southern and eastern plateau, and scrub vegetation will expand and invade the alpine steppe region. Based on existing research, we comprehensively integrate all these projected climate and environmental factors and present their potential changing ranges in the middle (2030-2050) and late (2080-2100) portions of the 21st century.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149550
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国气象科学研究院, 灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081, 中国
2.中国科学院青藏高原研究所, 中国科学院青藏高原环境变化与地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
3.南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害江苏省省部共建教育部重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
4.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 中国科学院气候变化研究中心, 北京 100029, 中国
5.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 竺可桢-南森国际研究中心, 北京 100029, 中国
6.中国科学院地球化学研究所, 环境地球化学国家重点实验室, 贵阳, 贵州 550002, 中国
7.国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张人禾,苏凤阁,江志红,等. 青藏高原21世纪气候和环境变化预估研究进展[J]. 科学通报,2015-01-01,60(32):150-154
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